We had 1 lackluster jobs report and you idiots are calling a recession?!? One month of employment data is not a trend. More than 70% of the layoffs came from temporary workers which Hurricane Beryl certainly had an impact on. The fed Put is alive and well with 525 basis points of ammunition at their disposal. There’s still a lot of cash on the sidelines and as soon as the fed cuts those mny mrkt yields won’t seem so great anymore, not to mention the discount rate being lower and risk asset prices becoming more attractive. Smart money taking gains while the poors freak out over a non event and make bad decisions… it’s a tale as old as time.
People calling a recession in this sub are fully regarded
byu/MikeJonesssssss inwallstreetbets
Posted by MikeJonesssssss
36 Comments
>More than 70% of the layoffs came from temporary workers which Hurricane Beryl certainly had an impact on.
Elaborate on this further.
The trend has been rising unemployment, which the market didn’t care about until data showed that it was accelerating substantially faster than was expected. No one is saying that the world is coming to an end, but people are betting that the current market has little upside and potentially a lot of downside, hence the selling off. There might not be any cash on the sidelines, as the cash that is available will be used to buy bonds on a net basis. A relatively simple trade right now is to buy bonds and have them appreciate a lot if rates go down. People are selling stocks to put on this trade.
I’m not a regard I’m gifted and talented
Well japan correcting by almost 20% might not help your long position neither
days like that happen. hopefully it’s not 2008 again.
Aww shit, this confirms the reccession
But they have revised down like every report for two years so it’s prob much worse
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=456
The Sahm rule triggered last month, looks at more than “one month of employment data”….
https://fortune.com/2024/08/02/recession-indicator-claudia-sahm-rule-trigger-unemployment-rate-jobs-report/
Doesn’t seem to be panic mode but one to keep an eye on
From the BLS jobs report: “Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the central coast of Texas on July 8, 2024, during the reference periods for both the household and establishment surveys. **Hurricane Beryl had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment data for July,** and the response rates for the two surveys were within normal ranges.” [emphasis added]
A recession is inevitable…just deal with it
It won’t be the end of the world…the markets wont crash…the economy will recover pretty quickly but there still will be a recession
It’s gonna take a couple years for my portfolio to recover from this recession
GDP 2.8% isn’t going to be negative anytime soon, smart money knows that
A rising unemployment has been trending for some time, however the concern comes from the fact that unemployment is trending faster than expected. It’s hard to put a break on a downward trending market, once it starts.
Been in one for a few years now, but the govt statistics lie each and every month…
Anyone calling it now, is way way way behind the curve…
Bud, you only look at one month of unemployment data? Let us know how those risk assets work out for ya!
Honestly if you don’t think we’re headed for a recession you haven’t been fucking paying attention. This is pure copium.
How much NVDA are you holding?
If you think it’s a crash just sell? Buy back later it’s pretty easy conclusion if that’s your take on the markets future.
Well actually bro, it’s up to you if we’re having a recession or not. If you buy calls, you can bet your ass they’ll be one next week. Puts tho, the whole market is soaring to new ATH.
The choice is yours!
Translation : “Pump my positions til I can get out.”
People who think the Fed cuts rates when things are going well are regarded. Time to sell calls.
Thanks for the hopium x
Japan stocks on free fall… this guy loaded on calls is about to get wrecked.
OP legit blaming bad unemployment numbers on weather 😂.
The stats say the US economy is in a lower dip than the market was in the 1930’s recession and market crash. Whether that is true or not, not sure.
We should all put our hands in the air and run in a circle!!!
After rates get cut, market go down. That’s what happens
We re already in one.
Market dips can be caused by nothing other than people thinking there will be a dip. So just the fact that this many people think that should cause you all some concern at least.
Good old fashioned sell off coupled with end of quarter readjusting and a lackluster jobs report. Just normal stuff
How much of your portfolio are mag 7 meme stocks? Keep holding and watch it vanish.
Money market is for rookies, get into a short term bond yield ETF.
Nothing but a bull market correction clearly 
I have other leading indicators, discretionary spending in online sales. We are talking a 30% decline in the past 31 days.
To speak plainly, “ain’t no one gots no money.”
Go ahead and post your mega bullish positions or STFU.
Rate cuts are inherently not good. Also yield curves predict 100% of recessions so far