It is exactly 4:54 am as I start typing this shit. I’ve been looking at the charts and economic data all night as well as different funds recent trades. My oh fucking my. What the fuck is going on here. The market is currently ripping off of the consensus we have officially bottomed and there is no threat of an imminent recession. CPI comes out under 3% and the market rips the next day. We all think this is the holy grail bull run coming that has drowned our underwear in substances during our wet dreams of this time. But realistically, CPI going under 3%, which it hasn’t done in three years, just means that the economy is slowing down to rates we haven’t seen in 3 years. Doesn’t that just mean we are more likely heading to a recession. All of the data is pointing to the economy “cooling down”. Economic indicators globally in other nations are pointing towards the same “cooling down” phase. Just a little fucking curious as to why anyone is even ripping the market long term right now. Citadel doesn’t even know what the fuck to do as most of their positions are straddled with heavier percentages of assets allocated in puts. Just curious as to what anyone thinks of this. Am I slow (as in slow I mean a word that is banned by Reddit)? Am I going crazy? At this fucking point it could be both. But I think that everyone entering the market right now in long term securities could be entering a death sentence. Please let me know what you guys think. Currently working on a MCMC quant strategy relating certain market corrections to the drawdown that just happened. Highly suggest looking into MCMC. Will post more about what I find from this strategy soon. Please let me know if I should just shut the fuck up and throw some Gs on the TQQQ.
Posted by kingjack03
32 Comments
fantastic wallstreetbets post mixed with early signs of schizophrenia, 10/10
Recession has to do with GDP growth, which is different from inflation. GDP is growing. Financial crash was cancelled last week, we go to the moon 
Probably staring at charts all night and ranting at 5am isn’t the best way to come up with a financial strategy.
There is some weird stuff going on in the markets these days. Stocks roaring back predict almost 0 chance of recession . Bonds have 7 rate cuts priced in over the next couple years, so a hundred percent chance of recession. Somebody is wrong. Economy seems somewhere in the middle, slowing down enough to squash inflation, but not enough to squash growth, aka soft landing. Hard to say where it will end up. Maybe see what happens once the Fed starts cutting rates next month before doing anything. And go to sleep for god sakes.
😂😂😂😂😂 dude go to sleep!
I feel you OP.
I closed some long positions and have no trust whatsoever in the situation right now. But I really hate having the money just sitting around, and it is too risk to go short due to the recent recoveries that are still ongoing.
But I dont think it will last or that we hit the bottom yet. Feels kinda fake right now. Like big fish just waiting to recover some more before selling big time.
OP doesn’t seem like they could afford Cocaine so I’m putting my money on meth.
My guy the casino doesn’t open for another 2 days GET SOME SLEEP
Bruh, ever heard of paragraphs? My eyes hurt reading this.
Market makers(Blackrock, Vanguard, Citadel, etc.) never just have positions either long or short. They always have both loaded. With their money, they can easily DCA back into or near green.
Real people are getting laid off or can’t find good jobs for a long time. Real people are paying too much for groceries and insurance. Real people can’t afford decent houses. Real people have more credit card debt than ever.
My brokerage and retirement accounts are at all time highs.
So yeah something will crack.
You looked at charts and economic data all night and you arrived at a conclusion everyone already knew for like a couple months now? Cpi is slowing yes, exactly what should happen when fed raises rates. You know why fed raised rates? Cause they wanna cool cpi.
Go to sleep.
Delusion and psychosis are setting in.
https://preview.redd.it/evudwz7pa8jd1.jpeg?width=844&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5cf0f0ba49d857c7767a0316a013c3c96cf6ce35
Michale bury is that you?
Fun fact
All economic data is wrong and is later revised
In 2008 it was years before GDP was revised negative and the recession was official
So if you are looking at current economic data and thinking “the economy is growing because GDP is positive”, it’s not necessarily true and GDP in reality could already be negative
There is a possibility we are not headed to recession, we are already in one, and have been in one all year, it’ll just be a few years before it’s officially announced that 2024 was a recession year
I feel like it’s logical to expect a recession but the government and business will do whatever however to keep this thing pumping. Who really knows
All that post just to say you lost money on puts?
You need to simplify. This week’s narrative is that the Fed will lower rates on 9-18 possibly by 50 bp. This will lower money market rates. There is over $1.8T in these funds according to the Fed. A record level. The thinking is that as the Fed lowers rates, MMF investors will pivot away from lower yields on MMFs and buy stocks.
Also as rates are reduced this will help companies bottom lines (especially small caps) and it also may yield a higher multiple on the higher earnings.
That being said the devil is in the details and large caps are already at high multiples. I think the Fed will slow roll any rate reductions. Therefore a wall of money entering the market is unlikely. It will be a gradual process. Also the money will flow to value and small stocks which will benefit the greatest from lower rates.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?eid=1217622&rid=21
Lower rates already saw mortgage refinancings jump 35%. Further lower rates are going to unlock a lot of consumer and corporate buying power.
Businesses have been doing a lot of restructuring over the past couple of years. Between that and AI implementation we should get decent productivity gains over the next few years.
Let me ask you this – where else in the entire world are people going to put their money that’s better than the USA stock market?
Answer – fking no where. The entire world is dumping their money into us, and until someone else gets even remotely close to our returns, they’re going to keep doing it.
Do remember that the classical definition(s) & indicators of recession have been mutated, brutalized, and effectively altered. Moreover, if your only concern is how economic data will impact certain stocks or ETF’s it doesn’t actually matter if there is a recession per say.
80% of S and p 500 company earnings beat expectations.
Great DD. Will go long.
Stonks only go up. Don’t fight it.
My homeless friend in SF sends me messages like this about every 3 months.
Buy tqqq and sqqq. You literally cant lose
Cocaine is a hell of a drug! I agree with your dissertation. The problem is the market fundamentals don’t matter anymore
What lol 😂 there is like 100 percent chance of severe recession . Non of this is normal , or sustainable . Look back at history , you can’t tell me this is just going to keep going up with no repercussions or a crash . We have never come out of a situation like this without a crash or very hard landing . You can keep getting fed that government and corporate bullshit they use every time they suck the middle class dry , But if your smart you can plan ahead for the impending downturn .
Post a more independent DD so I can fully understand your incoherent cocaine rant
You were brave enough to not format this text with any paragraph indentation, but I think you could have gone the extra mile by not including any periods to your sentences either, really get us into your frame of mind
Stock market go up. Stock market go down. Stock market go up again. Stock market go down again.
That’s my analysis
https://preview.redd.it/asncidu6s8jd1.png?width=1194&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=107e53bfda774d9408a443e149905a1f72b63a02
OP