So it is a dice roll. If we get 1-5 we are saved, if we get 6 we are cucked. Spy to 700 EOY
VhickyParm on
Why the hell did we cut rates in July 2019
Murky_Bid_8868 on
It’s not the rate cuts it’s the speed of rate cuts
The years they had to due to recession vs. the slow cuts.
bdh2067 on
It’s more about the reason for the rate cuts. If the economy is heading south fast and the fed is playing catch-up with very blunt tools, then the market is – coincidentally- going to reflect a worsening macro environment. If they’re simply adjusting / tweaking and not cutting dramatically, if people and businesses are spending and earnings are ok, …then why would market collapse simply bc of rate cuts?
MannyFresh45 on
Chart doesn’t tell the full story
WhiteColllarCrime_69 on
This is not correct
grimandnordic1 on
Time to full port my $23 account into calls you bitches
panchampion on
I’m going to need the source for this chart
Otherwise-Growth1920 on
WSB is kinda regarded but the whole “When the Fed cuts rates it causes a market crash” that’s constantly spammed one here and somehow been accepted as an absolute truth by the majority of WSB members is terrifyingly regarded. I honestly don’t understand how a supposedly functioning adult can possibly be that stupid.
North-Examination715 on
With all the data, it just seems like sometimes it does sometimes it doesn’t, it’s truly random/based on other things in combination with the rate cut, which means regards cant use it as a guaranteed call/put signal, so anyone that does use it is confirmation biasing their gambling plays.
Parzival-44 on
What kind of bank regulations were changed in the 70s-80s? I just remember seeing a noam chomsky clip talk about regulations prevented banks failing earlier in the country
Dr-McDaddy on
You’re forgetting that while historically rate cuts may have led to positive market returns, a negative yield curve can indicate underlying economic stress that may prevent the market from following this pattern, potentially leading to negative returns even after rate cuts.
Read between the lines.
vacityrocker on
So stay bullish and go all in… this time you may be in the 14%
optionsCone on
Based on the last 3 rate cut cycles – there’s a 66% chance market falls on average -7.3%
Source: OP’s graph 📊
LittleHottie8675309 on
I get that this chart is considered a source by WSB standards. I just don’t think people understand that this is not a source by any other standards.
OrdinaryReasonable63 on
Yeah, sure, and if you changed the window to 24 months you’d see a positive return on every rate cut . Here is the 6 month return, more informative IMO. What the data actually shows is that rate cuts into economic weakness are associated with recession, and that recessions tend to be short lived (with the notable exception of the 2008 financial crisis).
19 Comments
People in 2007 thought the same.
So it is a dice roll. If we get 1-5 we are saved, if we get 6 we are cucked. Spy to 700 EOY
Why the hell did we cut rates in July 2019
It’s not the rate cuts it’s the speed of rate cuts
The years they had to due to recession vs. the slow cuts.
It’s more about the reason for the rate cuts. If the economy is heading south fast and the fed is playing catch-up with very blunt tools, then the market is – coincidentally- going to reflect a worsening macro environment. If they’re simply adjusting / tweaking and not cutting dramatically, if people and businesses are spending and earnings are ok, …then why would market collapse simply bc of rate cuts?
Chart doesn’t tell the full story
This is not correct
Time to full port my $23 account into calls you bitches
I’m going to need the source for this chart
WSB is kinda regarded but the whole “When the Fed cuts rates it causes a market crash” that’s constantly spammed one here and somehow been accepted as an absolute truth by the majority of WSB members is terrifyingly regarded. I honestly don’t understand how a supposedly functioning adult can possibly be that stupid.
With all the data, it just seems like sometimes it does sometimes it doesn’t, it’s truly random/based on other things in combination with the rate cut, which means regards cant use it as a guaranteed call/put signal, so anyone that does use it is confirmation biasing their gambling plays.
What kind of bank regulations were changed in the 70s-80s? I just remember seeing a noam chomsky clip talk about regulations prevented banks failing earlier in the country
You’re forgetting that while historically rate cuts may have led to positive market returns, a negative yield curve can indicate underlying economic stress that may prevent the market from following this pattern, potentially leading to negative returns even after rate cuts.
Read between the lines.
So stay bullish and go all in… this time you may be in the 14%
Based on the last 3 rate cut cycles – there’s a 66% chance market falls on average -7.3%
Source: OP’s graph 📊
I get that this chart is considered a source by WSB standards. I just don’t think people understand that this is not a source by any other standards.
Yeah, sure, and if you changed the window to 24 months you’d see a positive return on every rate cut . Here is the 6 month return, more informative IMO. What the data actually shows is that rate cuts into economic weakness are associated with recession, and that recessions tend to be short lived (with the notable exception of the 2008 financial crisis).
https://preview.redd.it/nyo8c9fwfnkd1.jpeg?width=652&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6049a8dc7ca1c970d854d365a2ff209ab9e3f8c
Rate cuts equals market blasts to the moon.
Depends but I tend to agree. US is in a decent position to take off in stocks yet. Might not be crazy gains but good I suppose.