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    Why NVDA is going to moon for next 2 quarters

    • In the last quarter(s), the big five have raised Capex spending on AI, and their guidance shows even higher Capex spending on AI infra.
    • There is a race to capture AI offerings between Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, and other upstarts. Neither can give up that race, even if it means more infra spending. For example, Google's stock fell 20% over a small bug in their AI offering.
    • The LLM model sizes are increasing multifold, requiring more/better GPUs, which means more business for NVIDIA. The previous models are mostly useless.
    • Assemblers like SMCI have projected a doubling of sales in their recent earning, even with lower margins.
    • Nvidia keeps an insane margin and keeps raising it. Their ability to tell a story around the lower cost to operate, including net energy and compute has been bought by the market. Huangs says it is cheaper to run AI operations with a million-dollar Nvidia chip than a free chip from a competitor.
    • There is still no competition to either Nvidia chips or the Cuda programming and libraries that almost everyone uses for GPU ops. Nvidia has a 10-year lead on GPU programming and open libraries.
    • A reversal of this trend would have telltale signs. None exist.

    Tldr: Nvidia will beat the earnings and raise. The trend will continue for a few more quarters until a recession hits and Big 5 can't spend on infra. We will have bigger problems than Nvidia stock if that happens.

    Why NVDA is going to moon for next 2 quarters
    byu/blackSwanCan inwallstreetbets



    Posted by blackSwanCan

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    31 Comments

    2. robmafia on

      flipside: their massive margins can’t be sustained and after nonsensically hyping blackwell for a year, it’s kinda fucked and the b100 is nowhere to be found. it seems like they’re pushing the b20 to the normal markets, instead of just china.

    3. Miserable_Drummer834 on

      Nvda will beat the earnings and raise, BUT will the stock price follow up? Answer this one

    4. Training_Pay7522 on

      1. All of this, and more, is insanely already priced in already.
      2. Google does not buy that many GPUs from Nvidia, they build their own tensor cores, Apple too uses Google Tensor for anything ML and AI. Nvidia isn’t the only player around the space, and many things will evolve. Betting on Nvidia staying market leader at the start of this tech boom isn’t different than betting on many others that have been market leaders in tech before, and aren’t anymore. Sure, Cisco and Intel made great products and money, and yes, computing and internet were indeed good things in hindsight, but if you bought McDonalds or Costco 20 years ago instead of those two you would’ve made more money, because they were hella expensive.
      3. Companies that shell tens of billions in AI, but show little to no return for it (pretty much all of them), will have to face cost cutting and looking for the alternatives. The money shelled now is only there due to hype and because there’s a race to capture a market (without even knowing how to monetize it), but this isn’t gonna last forever.
      4. As you can imagine, at the already insane prices, in a cyclical market like tech, there’s more risks than gains to be found by betting on Nvidia
      5. Logic matters little, companies go down with good earnings and outlooks, or go up when they face tragic earnings, so any logic argument is still potentially detached to short-mid term market movements.

    5. digital_m0nk on

      Nvidia’s current market cap is 3T and its EPS is << 1%. 4x growth is already factored in. Competition from Instinct 300 and Gaudi 3 is getting fierce. Either Nvidia grows 10x within the next 2 years or its stock price is likely to readjust downwards.

    14. joseph66hole on

      I sold a few shares to lock in some gains. If it goes up good, if it goes down, then I lower my overall cost.

    15. CheebaMyBeava on

      this is just plain wrong, a new chip is right around the corner which will render GPUs old tech.

    16. Legitimate-Ant-3089 on

      My logic tells me nvida will dive tomorrow even on insane earnings.

      I have no positions, and I want nvidia to continue to soar as it’s driving my retirement account, but I just have a bad feeling that very short term it’s going on sake and people are going to be beat.

    18. PckMan on

      Missed my entry so I hope I don’t get IV crushed. Here’s to hoping 128 is low enough.

    22. wpglorify on

      Massive sell orders sitting above $130, even if Nvidia beats earnings. It’s hard for some buyers to buy nearly 2 million shares between $130 and $136 after hours, which are visible on the order book.

      Nvidia will most likely beat the earnings but not the expected move, especially the upside, staying out.

    23. jbvcftyjnbhkku on

      Earnings don’t matter, the only thing that matters is if their guidance is good or bad

    24. RastaImp0sta on

      Usually when I see every single post talking about a company’s earning and they all say the exact same thing, it usually means it’s going to do the opposite.

      I don’t know if I have the balls to buy puts though.

    27. Least-Clue-9466 on

      LEAPS is the way to go right now for this play hold your calls ITM OTM I don’t care but HOLD

    28. BasilExposition2 on

      Google and AWS have their own AI chips. Gemini runs entirely on TPU v5p. They will still buy for
      Their customers but they aren’t using outside silicon.

      Microsoft has Maia. Facebook is building MTIA. They aren’t as mature. The Capex might not help NVIDIA.

      The one who will definitely benefit is TSMC and maybe Samsung.

    29. VariationConstant675 on

      Well, here is the top…![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)

    31. kllrnohj on

      Nvidia has the momentum, but AI absolutely erased the value of CUDA. Don’t bank on that keeping any sort of a moat or delaying competitors entries. ML/AI is all giant matrix multiplies and high level techniques. In the world of AI people are not writing much, if any, CUDA anymore. There’s large abstractions built up now, like pytorch, which already support multiple backends of which CUDA is just one possibility.

      AMD’s strategy is still a mess, but they just need to throw a small team at making a pytorch backend for ROCm or whatever and that’s the entirety of the CUDA advantage eliminated, even if ROCm still overall sucks vs. CUDA. Which AMD is already doing eg https://rocm.docs.amd.com/projects/install-on-linux/en/develop/install/3rd-party/pytorch-install.html

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