Things to consider before betting it all on NVDA earnings tomorrow.

TLDR; I AM AS REGARDED as the next guy, but I recommend lowering exposure to NVDA earnings tomorrow to save money to play the aftermath.

Tomorrow is the Super Bowl of stocks. It's no secret that everyone down to the shoe shiner is balls deep in NVDA (mostly long, looking at the options chain) exposure. There are also those hoping for the end of the world to begin tomorrow. But the one thing we know about Wall Street as a certainty is that they don't like when retail wins.

We are all aware of the bull case. VERY simplified:

1. Major tech companies have significantly increased CAPEX in Q2 and it doesn't take a genius to figure out where that money went.

2. Tech CEOs have been quoted as saying that underspending is more of an issue than overspending. See also Sam Altman (OpenAI) & Co. as being open supporters of the theory of effective accelerationism, which in a nutshell is the belief that the pursuit of general intelligence warrants all costs, natural and financial.

3. Nvidia is still founder led at this scale by Jensen Huang who is an amazing man and one of the greatest minds of our time.

The bear case is mostly about forward guidance, as pretty much everyone believes there will be an EPS beat. This is mostly macroeconomic and includes:

1. Concerns about tech companies not being able to profit from AI spending, leading to winding down.

Rebuttal: We're not going to see this materialize this quarter. Tech has barely dipped their toes into seeing what value they can extract out of the newest line of hardware. It is simply too early to see. Even if you don't buy that, see previous point about under/overspending.

1. Blackwell delays

Rebuttal: Priced in, much like the heat death of the universe itself. But really, who cares about this. Blackwell is still the only game in town.

1. US economy slowing, 800k jobs just "lost" while stocks are nearing ATH, election concerns, general stuff like that.

Rebuttal: No rebuttal. Completely legitimate to believe that a large correction is looming, if you're not kidding yourself.

So why not move all in tomorrow? 50/50 is better odds than what retail usually get anyways.

You all know about IV crush, how NVDA is already priced to jump basically 10% after earnings, and all that. If you need to play options, please consider getting ones longer than August 30, which will be impacted the most. September 20 seems like a fair middle ground between "fun" leverage and having enough time to correct the ship should things go bad.

You also all know that the world is watching these earnings the way we watch a groundhog come out of a hole to tell us if there are going to be six more weeks of winter or early spring. If you are patient enough to hold cash and simply wait to see the outcome, you WILL make money on placing a directionally good bet – with the benefit of being able to scoop up IV crushed options. It is also possible to hold SPY calls/puts as a proxy for NVDA to lessen the impact of IV crush.

It is a likely reality that big money is able to keep the prices pinned this week so that these 130's expire cheap or worthless. A massive 128.60 institutional buy wall was briefly up today, before the stint over 129, which suggests to me that smart money/funds are keeping dry powder ready.

Please consider which would minimize regret: missing out on winning the big 50/50 or not having the funds to act on what will be very well informed plays for the direction of the entire market over the next 1-2 months.

Thank you very much, may God protect our savings.