TLDR: In the past five years, Apple's stock has generally declined on the day of an iPhone announcement. There is little reason to believe this year will be different.
I have seen some discussion that Apple's upcoming iPhone 16 announcement on September 9 might provide a spike in Apple's stock price, perhaps offering a nice options play.
Based on the past five years of iPhone announcements—with the most-recent years being most analogous to this year's announcement than earlier years (being increasingly incremental upgrades rather than offering significant new technologies or features, etc.)—that seems to be a bad bet.
Apple Stock Price Changes Surrounding iPhone Announcements (as Percentage Increases or Decreases)
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Days Before | 4.1% | 9.9% | (4.6%) | (1.7%) | (5.5%) |
| Day of Announcement | 1.2% | (2.7%) | (1.0%) | 0.9% | (1.7%) |
| 5 Days After | 1.8% | (3.0%) | (3.2%) | (0.4%) | 1.6% |
Is There Any Reason to Believe This Year's iPhone Models Will Result in Anything Different?
No, at least not based on the new features of the iPhone 16 lineup itself, as revealed by (trustworthy) rumors. Thus far, the most-exciting new feature is … a new button.
But perhaps the announcement will include something spectacular and unforeseen? Just don't bet on it.
Update Regarding the Availability of AI in iPhones
A couple comments have noted the introduction of AI into iPhones. Just to clarify, last year's "Pro" models already support AI. That being said, the entirety of this year's iPhone lineup (i.e., the "Pro" and non-"Pro" models alike) are expected to support AI. Weigh that factor how you will.
Don't Bet on Apple's Stock to Surge After iPhone Announcement
byu/MoreWay6395 inwallstreetbets
Posted by MoreWay6395
31 Comments
But it’s got a new color this year. Innovation. 
No shit sherlock
True WSB analysis from a regard 
Excuse me but why wouldn’t the world’s most valuable company go up after their next copy pasted mobile device? I’m all in
I think to put calls on it as it will go up people eat up stupid shit like being able to send whatever emojis you want to with AI and some crappy colours.
Over the last 2, 4, 6 or whatever years, Apple has been a better stock than Google, Amazon or Msft or basically everything else on the market except for a few lucky bets, even though everyone talks them down all the time. Betting against Apple is a really stupid bet
With all the new AI shit people will start creaming over it meaning Calls 
You’re forgetting that the market only exists to ruin your day. 15% increase incoming
so short apple stock for the day?
Ecosystem is so sticky that it should sell similar to previous years. No giant rush, but no major decline either. Smartphone business for apple is just about as stable Windows has been for MS.
It always slips a bit after the keynote
Not just about the iphone.. 10 year anniversary of of AW. Introducing AI into the phone and will make it the biggest deal possible for customers.
If you had listened to this guy every year, you would have smoked away so much money
But Apple says, “It’s Glowtime.” That means calls.
Don’t try to controlthenarrative, shyt went so bad mf landed in hall of fame in wsb. Big nope .
I am team 🍏 AI. Let Tim 👨🍳
YOLO CALLS
I’d short it if I hadn’t blown my account
I was actually thinking this same thing earlier today and was getting ready to sell my calls I have. But now that someone on WSB posted this I think I’ll load up on more calls.
16 is pretty disappointing maybe 17
But but… Its gonna have bigger cameraasse
Still waiting for the Siri/chatGPT update
You mean releasing the same phone for the 16th time at a higher price isn’t going to pump the stock?!?!
So, major surge following announcement. Noted.
This one will have ai. Gg
Both PRO models will be min 256gb from JUST 1,099 pro and 1199 pro max. £
It drops after every key note like clock work. This isn’t new
I wont pick up any stock, but I will pick up one of the new phones.
Is AAPL and ‘surge’ even allowed in the same sentence?
Riced in?
I believe the AI news is already priced in. AAPL $200