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    Calling the top on $TSLA. Change my mind

    1. Sales. Tesla sales are down, and I think they will keep falling. There’s no EV winter, Ford etc. are doing fine. People are buying EVs, just not Teslas.

    2. Leadership. Musk has spread himself too thinly. Spends his days tweeting random conspiracies, aside from running idk how many side companies. Seems he has shiny object syndrome and clearly the attention isn’t on Tesla right now.

    3. Competition. Chinese EVs are better. Cheaper. He said it himself. Americans will eventually catch on and shift to those.

    4. Regulations. Trump gets elected, he will favor fuel/hybrids. He could’ve made Biden-Harris his allies as they clearly care more about climate change, EV stuff – but he’s alienated them more than ever.

    He’s also alienated his core customer base (climate conscious left-wing folks, right wing folks mostly think EVs are gay)

    1. His public (mis)behavior. Going on full jousts with the biggest western governments while cozying up with the dictatorships (Saudi, Turkey) won’t serve him. His lack of content moderation and refusal to cooperate with the world’s largest govs can cost him big. See Pavel Durov’s current situation.

    2. Stock price. Tesla is overbought. Has been for a while. Was fine when it was seen as the highest growth EV contender, but its subsiding with competition. He’s been pushing for it to be valued as an AI company but it’s not happening. The $56bn payout that was just approved shows he probably thought that money was more productive out the company versus reinvested.

    3. X is bleeding cash. He’ll probably sell some $TSLA stock to reinject money into it since he’s not letting it go bankrupt and most likely won’t sell it either.

    Based on the above. I call a top.
    Thoughts?

    Calling the top on $TSLA. Change my mind
    byu/Ok_Bodybuilder_2384 inwallstreetbets



    Posted by Ok_Bodybuilder_2384

    View 31 Comments

    31 Comments

    3. loughcash on

      Definitely, I called the top a little early but held my puts which broke even Friday 😅.
      I’ll double down this week on 9/20 185p

      Fu k tesla

    4. romik13 on

      Agreed. Tesla is done long time. You short every green week, guaranteed money. Musk is selling to simps

    7. JPMorgansStache on

      You’re…calling the top on $TSLA…NOW? The peak of this stock was on November 5, 2021. In almost (3) years it hasn’t even scratched near the surface of that level.

      All of the things you said may be true, but they would all be the reasons why this stock has been tanking since the top. Fun fact, before being named as such, all the “mag7” companies previously topped in Q4 2021 before a silent crash in 2022. Tesla lost -75% during that time. They barely have recovered half of what was lost then.

      As far as losses on Twitter, they pale by comparison.

      Musk has admitted the private value of the company is less than half of what he paid (a loss of over $22B) and his legal threats to the advertising industry have sent any and all advertisers running far away from the platform but mostly that all just shakes sentiment in Tesla because investors can’t comprehend how a guy could be so brilliant as to invent cars or spaceships but can’t figure out how to sell digital ad space.

      Tesla has never regained ground like they’ve lost, but look on the brightside, it’ll be a while before any other company in history loses as much as what Nvidia did last week. I guess that’s got to be some kind of relief lol

    8. dansod on

      Agree 1000%. In the past everyone would say “Tesla is the only EV that can hit 200+ miles. Tesla is the only one who has a charging network.” Those things are no longer relevant. It’s only time before reality hits.

    9. __Evil-Genius__ on

      Shorting Tesla is dangerous business. Elon will cook your shorts with some bullshit tweet. Saudi buyout next week! Everyone look over here at crypto! Full self driving next quarter! Next it’s gonna be look at me being chummy with Nvidia and our AI expenditure!

      I think Tesla is on the way down, but I wouldn’t make short term bets against it. Far out expiration date options would insulate you from any short term shenanigans.

    10. JerryLeeDog on

      It blows my mind that people still willing short Tesla

      Like how in the fuck does anyone think that’s a good idea?

      Most people get what they deserve in here

    14. LittleHottie8675309 on

      This post has a little something for everyone. Was the prompt “chatGPT talk about tesla, but be divisive”?

    16. donotressucitate on

      I was at the Tesla service center in Pensacola 3 weeks ago and the line for people to pick up their new cars and trucks was out the door. Pretty sure Teslas are selling.

    17. decovfefeated on

      Tesla still has 50% of new EV sales in the US, while this has been trending down. It’s not accurate to say that people are choosing other brands at a higher rate. In terms of volume, Tesla still sells the most EVs by a large margin.

      Forgot about robotaxi and the robot. Do not underestimate how the stock might move pending more FSD improvements. An announcement of a software licensing agreement to any OEM for FSD tech would send the stock up past 300 again. Tesla does not need to get to L4 autonomy to make a shit ton of money if they are the go to provider of L3 software (At least until true L4/L5 becomes a consumer option)

      Obviously overvalued as a car company, but all the bad news about slowing sales is already baked in.

    20. EquivalentHoliday188 on

      When you posted “Ford, etc… are doing fine” you lost the argument you were trying to make.

    21. Sowarm on

      Not sure about that, that was a monthly sell off but it’s actually normal before a run up, trend start has been retested it may actually explode those highs in the near future.

    24. Infortheline on

      That all sounds logical unfortunately, Tesla (and the stock market in general) does not work on logic.

    27. BaxBaxPop on

      1. Sales are roughly flat from last year, but trending up. 2024 auto sales have been flat worldwide. This is not a Tesla problem, it’s an expensive product that’s mostly financed in a high interest rate environment problem. Most consumers are waiting for rates to come down to buy new cars, as reflected by the fact that the age of the worldwide fleet is at like a 20 year high. EV’s on the other hand continue to grow in 2024 compared to 2023. ICE sales are declining. And most major manufacturers are backing off BEV to focus on hybrid, including Ford
      2. Leadership is fine. No evidence Musk is spread thin. The company continues to innovate. But I love how you think you’re a good judge of where Musk’s attention is based on your time browsing the internet.
      3. Chinese EV’s are good, because they are heavily subsidized by the Chinese government. Because of this they will likely be banned in the US (like Huawei phones) and will have massive tarrifs in the EU. Tesla can compete with the Chinese.
      4. Regulations: If Trump gets elected and the IRA credits are eliminated, Teslas non-China competition will crumble. No OEM can make an BEV that is affordable without the credits. Tesla can. If Harris wins, credits continue and it’s business as usual.
      4.5. Core Consumers: people on reddit greatly overestimate how much the average consumer pays attention to politics. Seriously, like, 10% of consumers care about politics enough for it to decide a major purchase. For instance, how is the Tesla MY the best selling car in America with such an alienated customer base?
      5. Public Misbehavior: see above. Also, if eventually Republicans start buying EV’s, they love Musk now. So maybe he’s just winning a new demographic.
      6. Stock Price: it’s way oversold. Kinda priced appropriate for auto, practically no valuation for energy, self-driving, or robotics.
      7. X Bleeding Cash: Musk has made clear that he wants to accumulate Tesla stock. He wants 25%. With latest comp package (if approved) he’s at 21%. He’s not selling. If he needs money for X he can sell SpaceX shares (huge market for that) or XAI shares.

      tl;dr If you want to pull stuff outta your ass I’ll pull more factual stuff out of my way ass. Post your shorts.

    30. Various-Ducks on

      EV’s are dead but I don’t think Tesla is. Every other automakers can go back to ICE cars and Tesla can still keep filling it’s little niche of the market. There will still be weirdos that want electric cars

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