Close Menu
    Wall Street

    So .25 cut rather than .50 after the latest CPI ?

    CPI came in as expected at 2.5%, but the 20Y yield still saw a slight bump. Super core inflation ticked up a little.

    What you guys think how much Powell will cut on 18th 0.25 or 0.5 ?

    EDIT : How are you playing it ?

    So .25 cut rather than .50 after the latest CPI ?
    byu/Several_Sink2714 inwallstreetbets



    Posted by Several_Sink2714

    View 28 Comments

    28 Comments

    2. Hunter2222222222222 on

      20 year yields rising are more indicative of a 25 than a 50 BPS cut, which tracks perfectly with everything the Fed has said it will do. Stop trying to make 50 happen. It’s not going to happen. 

    5. StreetSweeper92 on

      CMe still had odds at 77:23 in favor of a .25 cut for next week. Over the next 7 meetings though; there’s a 70% chance we’ll be down to 4% by the 1/29/25 meeting.

    9. jr1tn on

      CME Fed tool has increased the odds of a 25 bp cut to 85%, and lowered the odds of 50 bp to 15%.

      With one week until the Fed decision, odds such as this (in excess of 80%) are almost always correct.

    13. blackSwanCan on

      It is almost confirmed .25 cut it would be now.

      Also, these numbers remove the risk of a recession in the short term. So generally, it is good news for large-cap stocks.

    15. AzizaOSRS on

      I think the start of rate cuts could signify a bottom or near bottom of $IWM. Tom Lee could be right that it will make new ATH by EOY

    17. SeveralBollocks_67 on

      I’ve processed a LOT of info regarding this next rate cut and it looks like nobody is expecting a .50 cut. Too drastic, especially during election season. .25 is sweet, .50 will piss people off.

    18. TS1664 on

      I’d lean towards Powell going with a **0.25 cut** rather than 0.5 after that CPI data while inflation’s ticking down, it’s still not low enough for the Fed to get aggressive with big cuts plus, Powell’s been careful with these moves, so I wouldn’t expect anything too drastic they’ll prob want to see how the economy responds before going bigger with cuts what do you think? would be wild if he went full 0.5

    20. BoxCivil8737 on

      Real catch 22, .25 cut is not going to do anything to push more demand .50 signals real world business environment not in good shape.

    21. RealHornblower on

      Still going to be .25 but I think this raises the probability they move to cutting by .25 basically every meeting on auto-pilot. Sep/Nov/Dec meetings would let them cut by .75 by the end of this year without causing them to seem “panicked”.

    22. Cold-Permission-5249 on

      It was always going to be 25 bps or nothing. Anything more would insight panic or cause higher than wanted inflation or both.

    23. AnybodySeeMyKeys on

      At the moment, according to the Fed, the odds of a 0.25% cut is around 73% and the odds of a 0.5% cut is 27%.

      I’d say that we’re likely looking at additional rate cuts in the November and December meetings. I’m in the financial biz and they think we’ll see 1.5% in cuts by mid-year next year.

    24. rhokie99 on

      Were we not already expecting 25bps? I don’t think there was a scenario where we were getting 50bps

    27. Samjabr on

      There is a strong argument to be made that they should not cut. People are still spending like crazy – It’s the wealth effect from all these balloon-stonk valuations.

      The only reason CPI is even down the past year is because China is literally crashing pulling down commodities, oil, etc.

      The FEDs hikes have done very little.

    28. EyeSea7923 on

      Another hugely overstated drop in the market. A little CPI increase and “everyone loses their mind” -Joker…

      Like it was ever going to 0.5 and priced in that way, bollacks

    Leave A Reply
    Share via