The Fed will cut 0.25% this week. They will not cut 0.50%. Everyone has known this for months, yet in the last week, we're seeing tons of media about how it should be 0.50% and it will be 0.50%, except it won't.
So why is big money making this false narrative? What's in it for them? I doubt this is about tricking retail investors. What's the angle?
Also, the Fed will release the dot plot this week showing future interest rate predictions for the next 2+ years, which is what will actually move the market.
Why are people pretending like a 0.50% cut is being considered?
byu/5entinel inwallstreetbets
Posted by 5entinel
45 Comments
They’re convincing you to think about buying calls which you will naturally inverse and buy puts, because the real correct move is to buy calls
Clickbait. Hype sells. Fear sells. .25% is boring 🥱
Dunno man. Probably the same people pretending nvda getting a subpoena.
While I 100% agree, I think it’s just bluster from talking heads to make a headline.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
But i think 50bps will not happen
Why do the casino’s advertise jackpot winners at slot machines? So you play the game. 
It just an excuse to tank the market if less than that happens lol
IMHO .50 would signal our economy is in more trouble than everyone thinks. Therefore .25 is the right move. They can then cut another .25 down the line.
Because the 13 week treasury bill market has 0.50% priced in.
Wishful thinking?
1% rate cut incoming
Nice crystal ball you got there, commenting to come back after Wednesday
Meanwhile funds, banks and congress crying for a 75 point cut 🤣
Because even a .50% cut would be too little too late. Swiss national bank started cutting rates in March and the other central banks should have done the same.
when you can’t see the angles no more you in trouble
– Carlito Brigante
Big money pays the media to spin what they want spun.
Remember there was a HUGE push to settle at 3% inflation instead of 2%? That’s because this increases the wealth Gap FASTER, so Big money spun the narrative it wanted heard. Even though the Fed mentioned 100s of times that their target goal is/was, and will be for the foreseeable future 2%. Because anything larger on a consistent basis would eventually push consumer goods farther and farther away from affordability as people shifted their focus onto necessities like we are seeing right now. This ULTIMATELY would be bad for the economy, to which the rich would clamor for a government bail out “for the people”… BUT they need to get the money from somewhere. And where is that money? With the Rich people who buy Government Treasury Bonds and they would be able to dictate a very high rate, to something that is GUARANTEED to be paid back. It’s a hell of a cycle that people don’t see unless you step back and look at the larger picture.
Can you “banbet!” this?
Warren asked for 0.75 today…
It feels like disappointment is being manufactured and pumped out via cnbc (remember the ‘great rotation’ narrative over the Summer).
It ain’t gonna be 50 bp, this isn’t that Fed. TLT better calm its ass down. 101 puts ahead of FOMC meeting
.75 incoming.
.75 incoming
Regardless, it’s all going down the toilet soon anyways am I right?
It will be 0.5%. The fed is disseminating info to major news outlets to raise the expectations of a 0.5% cut because they are way behind the labor market deterioration. It will be less of a shock to markets if it has been discussed several times as a potential in major media.
.25 raise incoming
Wall Street journal article from Nick.
How so you know for certain they’ll cut 0.25% and not 0.5%?
Moved the Overton window so Fed can dream bigger.
No idea but I’m sure many are on sidelines hoping the stocks drop so they can place their bets
Because we had a massive green week last week on this hype. Big institutions sell off today and tomorrow and then the tank job happens after everyone hoped for .5 and we get .25.
SPY $554 Puts 0DTE at 1:30pm EST
EASY MONEY (hope not to see yall at Wendy’s)
The market always wants more
Lets agree on 0.3750.
The 3 month t-bill is down 40 bps in the last month. It’s currently trading about 50 bps below the fed funds rate. In other words, the *bond market* feels like 50 bps is on the table. It’s not just media stories.
“buy the rumor, sell the news”
There has been one hell of a rally over the past year on rate cut expectations.
Fed futures priced in 0.5 over the weekend, why? No one knows, but someone knows something clearly
Bro because they say .50 then they get a .25 then they get to report on the short changing
I made a gamble over a month ago that it would be 0.50% well before I saw any reporting about it being possibly that high. I expected to lose on those options, but if they print I expect around 15x returns.
Trying to bully the FED. I guess we will find out if it’s manned by cucks or not.
Big money is pushing this narrative because they want retail to panic dump when the result of 0.25% comes out, so they can scoop up shares and then dump on retail at the end of the year at all time highs and show fantastic hedge fund returns.
If they say it’s 0.5 then only comes in at 0.25 the makers can sell and create fear to get others to sell and create a buying opportunity
being delusional and unhinged ain’t pretending my guy
Market manipulation my friend
So that when it isnt .5 they can justify liquidating a bunch of wsb regards with 0dte calls
The fed is cutting rates?
Look at bond yields. The Fed is late to the game, just like they were late to hike. The 3-mo yield is freefalling and has lost 50 bps in the last couple of weeks.
The 2-year bond says the Fed will need to cut **at least** 150 bps over the next 12-18 months to keep the market afloat. Yellen mortgaged the country’s future on fucking T-bills to keep the bond market in check. Problem is….you can only kick the can so far down the road before you run out of ammo.