50 basis points is now a slight favorite but I don’t think that will happen. If I think there will be a 25 basis point cut this week, what is the best way to bet on that? I don’t want to guess which way the market will react, I would rather deal with something that is a little more directly tied to interest rates.
Posted by godawgs695
8 Comments
Calls on vix
On Polymarket you can literally bet on it. If you are in the US you may have to VPN to EU to do it.
Sell a call spread on TLT.
The direct way to play this is via fed funds futures. Sept contract is currently priced with 61% chance of 50bps cut.
Buy or Sell /ZN about 2-3k in Buying Power. /ZN 10 year future notes. One pt move is $1000. Tick size who knows.
I think you’re a little late tbh. All the bets were made 2 months ago
TLT (a lot already priced in, though)
Check out these comments for an alternate idea. It’s risky.
https://www.reddit.com/r/options/s/vkSEvYrIKZ