Saw usual rise on VIX. Picked up some November $20 VIX calls
Connect_Boss6316 on
What’s israel going to do today?
Not-a-Cat_69 on
I have been following this extensively, I wouldnt worry much. They have done some incredible COD Black Ops / Advanced Modern Warfare against Hezbhollah, they took out the entire army (every top commander and now the chief nasrallah who was the one spreading radical ideology), there is nearly no hezbollah terrorists left and Israel has drones tracking every single known terrorists movement. They have infiltrated the communications networks, and supply chains…
They escalated to de-escalate because Hezbollah is Iran’s most highly trained and well positioned proxy army (30 years of billions of investments into training and bombs) to attack israel. they have been firing 100’s of rockets Every day for the past year.. enough is enough. People are celebrating the death of Nasrallah, he orchestrated terrorist attacks in LA, New York, Paris, UK, etc… hes an international terrorist leader like Bin Laden. Now a report came out that the Ayatollah in Iran has been transfered to a secure facility .. probably no electronics xD.. and another report came that the person who just tried to fill Nasrallah’s spot was taken out.. this is a strong message to any terrorist.
Israel has been so precise with this its actually incredible and for the history books (Gaza is another story) but after they first used pagers to kill / wound over 3000 recruits / troops / etc, then the next day at the funeral the walkie talkies and radios exploded, so in person meetings is all they could safely do… so somehow the ‘RadWan’ most elite unit met in a basement (tracked of course) and struck. Then on friday, the last remaining commander met with nasrallah and they used bunker buster bombs to make absolute sure he wasnt getting out of his bunker. Every senior leader and militant is dead in 2 weeks..
The only thing left is the rest of Hamas which is nearly defeated, Sinwar their leader is rumored to be dead already but is unconfirmed (not a threat anymore), and the Houthi’s in Yemen which is too far south to attack Israel effectively.. so that leaves Iran to either start a war they cant win, somehow a regime change occurs, or they finally accept Peace…
Israel is fighting for over 100 hostages still, so they wont stop, and they wont let hezbollah try to stop them from bringing their civilians home. I think what they did was really smart and there is less of a chance of anything big happening now save Iran going literally nuclear which we dont think they can do yet.. and its rumored Israeli Mossad infiltrated their supply chain and sold them faulty parts that could trigger at a certain time say if they try to launch anything..
The war is nearly over really, possibly another few months to finish things and get a possible negotiation for a hostage deal. It will take years to recover but this is all possibly leading to some historical changes for more peace once Iran realizes it can either keep spending money on weapons which Israel will destroy in a day, or invest in its economy… unlikely. But there are 12 US war / carrier ships in the region right now still as well to keep the pressure on.
TLDR:—-
* Its hard to say, but I dont think the middle east conflict is going to get much worse. Hezbollah was the biggest threat in reality after Hamas, and Iran cant do it alone.
* this doesnt mean that more attacks on any Oil facilities / etc will affect stuff like that, but for the market, not worried.
* be more concerned about Labor reports ( nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, etc these are all next week on the econ calendar) and CPI / CPE inflation data because that is going to affect how the fed deals with interest rates, these economic reports will still be most important, along with earnings season upon us – it will definitely be volatile for a few weeks. I’m still bullish, but I expect a decent pullback atleast sometime next year.
3 Comments
Saw usual rise on VIX. Picked up some November $20 VIX calls
What’s israel going to do today?
I have been following this extensively, I wouldnt worry much. They have done some incredible COD Black Ops / Advanced Modern Warfare against Hezbhollah, they took out the entire army (every top commander and now the chief nasrallah who was the one spreading radical ideology), there is nearly no hezbollah terrorists left and Israel has drones tracking every single known terrorists movement. They have infiltrated the communications networks, and supply chains…
They escalated to de-escalate because Hezbollah is Iran’s most highly trained and well positioned proxy army (30 years of billions of investments into training and bombs) to attack israel. they have been firing 100’s of rockets Every day for the past year.. enough is enough. People are celebrating the death of Nasrallah, he orchestrated terrorist attacks in LA, New York, Paris, UK, etc… hes an international terrorist leader like Bin Laden. Now a report came out that the Ayatollah in Iran has been transfered to a secure facility .. probably no electronics xD.. and another report came that the person who just tried to fill Nasrallah’s spot was taken out.. this is a strong message to any terrorist.
Israel has been so precise with this its actually incredible and for the history books (Gaza is another story) but after they first used pagers to kill / wound over 3000 recruits / troops / etc, then the next day at the funeral the walkie talkies and radios exploded, so in person meetings is all they could safely do… so somehow the ‘RadWan’ most elite unit met in a basement (tracked of course) and struck. Then on friday, the last remaining commander met with nasrallah and they used bunker buster bombs to make absolute sure he wasnt getting out of his bunker. Every senior leader and militant is dead in 2 weeks..
The only thing left is the rest of Hamas which is nearly defeated, Sinwar their leader is rumored to be dead already but is unconfirmed (not a threat anymore), and the Houthi’s in Yemen which is too far south to attack Israel effectively.. so that leaves Iran to either start a war they cant win, somehow a regime change occurs, or they finally accept Peace…
Israel is fighting for over 100 hostages still, so they wont stop, and they wont let hezbollah try to stop them from bringing their civilians home. I think what they did was really smart and there is less of a chance of anything big happening now save Iran going literally nuclear which we dont think they can do yet.. and its rumored Israeli Mossad infiltrated their supply chain and sold them faulty parts that could trigger at a certain time say if they try to launch anything..
The war is nearly over really, possibly another few months to finish things and get a possible negotiation for a hostage deal. It will take years to recover but this is all possibly leading to some historical changes for more peace once Iran realizes it can either keep spending money on weapons which Israel will destroy in a day, or invest in its economy… unlikely. But there are 12 US war / carrier ships in the region right now still as well to keep the pressure on.
TLDR:—-
* Its hard to say, but I dont think the middle east conflict is going to get much worse. Hezbollah was the biggest threat in reality after Hamas, and Iran cant do it alone.
* this doesnt mean that more attacks on any Oil facilities / etc will affect stuff like that, but for the market, not worried.
* be more concerned about Labor reports ( nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, etc these are all next week on the econ calendar) and CPI / CPE inflation data because that is going to affect how the fed deals with interest rates, these economic reports will still be most important, along with earnings season upon us – it will definitely be volatile for a few weeks. I’m still bullish, but I expect a decent pullback atleast sometime next year.