The crux of this thesis is well explained in this WSB post from earlier in the year. The thesis was correct – Uber missed earnings badly due to investment losses, and the stock tanked afterwards.
However, Q3 of 2024 earnings will be the opposite. Their investments killed it, which should result in blow-out EPS.
Uber has three major holdings:
- Aurora Innovations (AUR)
- Didi (DIDIY)
- Grab (GRAB)
Investment gains during Q3
AUR $2.81 to $5.95, a 111.74% gain
DIDIY $4.02 to $4.74, a 17.91% gain
GRAB $3.53 to $3.80 a 7.65% gain
Number of Shares
AUR 326 million shares
DIDIY 575 million shares
GRAB 535 million share
Total gains for Q3
AUR – $1,023,640,000
DIDIY – $414,000,000
GRAB – $144,450,000.
Total gain: $1,582,090,000
Modeling Q3 2024 EPS
EPS estimates are .37 for the quarter. With approximately ~2billion shares outstanding, the net income just from their investments alone will be EPS of $.79. Any additional EPS from operations is gravy. I’m guessing earnings will come in around $1 per share – exceeding EPS estimates by 300%.
The same thing happened back in Q4 2023. UBERS investments did well that quarter and the company blew out estimates. Looking back at Q4 2023 earnings as an indicator for this quarter, the stock moved from $67 to $81 within a week of earnings, a 20.9% gain.
I'm seeing some conflicting data around the actual date that earnings will be released – finviz says 11/06 and yahoo finance says 10/31. I'm currently rolling with the 10/31 date.
My Positions:
700 shares of UBRL purchased last week
12 of the 11/15 $90 calls acquired today
Risks
1) If the market shits the bed, this play might shit the bed too.
2) If Uber’s core business shits the bed or guidance is bad, this might not work.
Good day.
UBER is 100% going to crush earnings
byu/tardman_mcmantard inwallstreetbets
Posted by tardman_mcmantard
48 Comments
I don’t know, comparing this to Diddy makes me want puts.
Low key I’m a little worried about the steady pull back this week. Lol
Is it a house of cards if the valuation of your stock solely depends on the valuation of another stock?
Diddy, Grab, Aura?
My apartment lobby after 5pm always has door dashers trying to buzz in to deliver food and then follow me in. Calls
Famous last words
This play worked after Q1, I know because I saw that same post and did it.
Is the investment impact less of a secret now and therefore already priced in? I’m not sure.
But I’ll def be keeping an eye on this as we approach 10/31. Great post.
If tardmans in, I’m in.
The clear lack of express public transit to/from downtowns to airports of every major city means Uber shuttle will undoubtedly rake in cash too
Sounds regarded. I’m in for 1 November 15th tax deduction.
Isn’t this. Priced in already?
Uber puts are printing! 
Diddy really has his hands everywhere
Even when earrings are good the street still sees a massive sell off for profits
100%
Unless this or this happens
Lol
This reads like milk
Puts on UBER
Any reason you chose the date/strike price you did?
Risks: if It doesnt work, It doesnt work
I assume they would have disclosed if they sold any of those positions so its safe to assume they did not.. I’ve looked at EPS forecast on a couple of websites ant they range from 0.35 to 0.42. If this is all public info how come the estimates are so low?
Also, what are the chances UBER will not put their unrealized gains as part of the profit in their ER report?
EDIT:
Last big beat was on february 7th 2024, according to your post. On that day, Uber beat earnings by 292%.
The stock opened at 67.60 and closed at 71.90. So it did a 6% day. A good day for the stock, but underwhelming if we assume that the stock just beat ‘expectations’ by 3x. So part of me thinks the expectations from the market is that the EPS is strictly for operations.
Bought puts based on this regarded DD
Brother I dotn care if they cush earning or not. Just tell me whether price wll go up or not aftdr earnings report.
Dat gap gonna on the daily gonna fill first
You did not add the “this is not financial advice” doucheclaimer at the end of the post so I’m going ALL IN and then blaming you personally when it all goes to shit.
I’ll add, they moved all their production workloads to a much cheaper cloud infrastructure (ARM based), announced a month or so ago…so I foresee their operating expenses to decrease because as a SaaS platform, they spend a crazy amount on cloud compute.
Only core earnings matter. Investment gains and losses are ignored by analysts.
!RemindMe 15 days
Bought 5 11/15 86s
GL HF
1k in on calls
I live in a big city and haven’t used an Uber in over a year. The only thing UBER is going to crush is your hopes and dreams.
Beating earnings expectations because of ROI doesn’t indicate company growth which seems to be the only thing investors care about anymore.
I’ll say right now I haven’t looked into uber so there might be data to support your thing
I hope it goes up, I have 250k worth of stock that I need unload after 100/earnings.
Their US CMO sucks. Buy puts.
Time to sell the house and cash the 401k I trust OP
Appropriate username
Doubt it, I called a cab the other day.
The diddler strikes again
I haven’t taken an Uber in nearly a year. Uber has fallen off the map in the UK. Uber eats, way more expensive than Deliveroo. Getting a ride from Uber, have fun waiting 20minutes , and a taxi cost about the same
I think you misspelled.
UBER is 100% going to cr”a”sh earnings.
UBRL shares?? Goddamn if that isn’t risky, so why not calls on UBRL?
Already priced in after robotaxi event.
Awesome this guy has info that the market makers don’t have!
Ok fine I’ll bite  I’ll swipe some cheap calls from the AH dip
Just put the fries in the bag bro
This guy Ubers
too many letters and numbers.. Yolo or no yolo?
Fuck man am I really gonna have to sell my Uber shares. Hate seeing one of my favorite stocks on this sub