Semiconductors are ‘canary in the coal mine’ for tech sector, says Dan Niles

    Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management founder & portfolio manager, joins ‘Fast Money’ to talk what is next for the chips trade.

    38 Comments

    1. In all honesty, this guy has cost his own customers thousands of dollars. At some point things will slow. But 6 months – a year – etc.. NVDA was 94 a few months ago. Yesterday at 139. Timing the market is a total fools game unless you are trading the stocks. I’d also add, ASML was not bearish on their AL stuff. It was other things. I have no issue with contrarian views. But at some point you have to admit you’re off base. Finally, this is simple. If you believe that AI technology is the future, then why in the world would anyone think it’s a year or two of growth. It’s like when the internet started. That’s been decades and it’s never going back.

    2. They are missing something:

      ASML is seeing orders cancelled by Samsung and Intel because both companies are struggling to attract customers to their foundry divisions.

      The reason NVDA can’t deliver all the chips the hyperscalers want is because packaging capacity and TSMC/ASE is limited. It’s not the actual wafer fabrication process (where ASML’s tools factor).

      There will eventually be a hardware digestion phase as Dan describes but the sign is not ASML… it’s hyperscalers CapEx.

    3. I'm not sure why they're surprised. Biden ordered them not to sell to China, who accounts for half the revenue……duh much ?!?!??! Next to come are NVDA and AMD who might have other countries they can't sell to……..

    4. He talked about AI but he did not seem to know about the accelerated computing upgrade which the data center providers have been making money by upgrading to GPUs

    5. Dan Nathan has never been anything but negative on everything he’s ever talked about from the time that I’ve watched him on this show.. such a down.. trend don’t go backwards, especially in technology we are who knows what the next grade vibe Jensen and Nvidia is going to come up with or AMD.. people want to stay ahead of the game

    6. I wanted to hear what Guy Adami was Embacefully FuknShitUp about. You can just tell by the look on his face that He was embracefully FuknSombodeezShitUp-RealGud … that alone is Priceless … 🙂🍿

      OkayFiiine – what does Mr. Dan Niles have to say? Mr. Niles sir … 🤓

    7. At this point, everyone should know that a storm is coming. Do yourself a favor and be prepared to buy more; for those who know where to look tho. Only fools sell during a crash. I accumulated over $1.8m in profits alone during the last crash and even pulled it off with ease in a bad economy.

    8. I think his reasoning is interesting and this idea of AI digestion phase makes sense. It’s just very hard to sit on sidelines, or time the market when the hype carries the trade

    9. Have been watching Dan since Dotcom bust. He has always been proven wrong on his predictions. Killed many portfolios (I2 company was killed by his lofty projections) and still shows up on CNBC as an analyst.

      Straight up Nvidia customers are right here in the US (no China impact and no blowing hot and cold retail customers) and their CAPEX is not going anywhere for at least 2025. This CAPEX will produce results when these hyperscaler customers are able to reduce work force and reduce physical space. That is all there is.

    10. I think he's right in some sense. But if you're a long-term investor, none of this should bug you. There will be starts and stops. But the long-term trend is clear. If it's your retirement money, you might want to try to get out of names like Nvidia after the next blowout quarter, which is coming in November and then February. I product the Feb earnings call will stun even the most positive analyst. Then, you might sit on the sidelines if you think the pace will stabilize. But it's also possible that Blackwell sells in increasing volumes as TSMC brings additional advanced packaging capacity online. In other words, i suspect Nvidia will still be allocating Blackwell because it's a much better/cheaper inference engine. If they want to, Nvidia can even create a new Blackwell product that has even higher margins. There's a lot Nvidia can do to exploit the demand that will likely not subside despite the hand-wringing of these analysts.

    11. So Harris has not answered one question without outside aid and it turns out there's fraud being Committed in Her small Donations pool, and We now know She's Irish Indian only not Black At all😢 And You still Want Fact check or Research 😂 voting Blind Is Foolish

    12. I came here for Kamala’s CNBC interview but she declined. Cannot sit for an hour long economic interview. She also declined Bloomberg and Dave Ramsey. Gotta check her out on Call her Daddy.

    13. ASML said the only strong sector was AI, so why sell off the AI names? NVDA is up today now that the market digested this report. Dan Niles is consistently wrong.

    14. I saw a guy on Scott Galloway's podcast about 7 , 8 months ago who said the same. Unless some new technology came along ala Chat GPT there was no way Nvidia could continue to grow at the rate it has up to that point.

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