• Brief

  • I hold a single stock. A company that has suffered many set-backs. Decades of research have yielded 1 blockbuster drug in China
  • All sorts of issues like law-suits, FDA rejection plagued them.

• My assumptions (please comment on this)

  • Based on (extreme) cost cutting the balance sheet will improve, on the expense side.
  • Based on increased revenue the balance sheet will further improve
    • Combined: The stock price will be positively affected, as traditional fundamentals/metrics improve significantly in the next two quarters?

• Quick overview of facts Fibrogen actions
  • 75% reduction in USA workforce
  • Chief Medical Doctor departure
  • Chief Financial Officer departure
    • Saving millions in payroll expenses
  • Cancel HQ
    • The above may indicate a sale of the company, the cost cutting is excessive. Saving approximately 20 million p/a
  • 150 million in cash (runway thru 2026)
    • Cash covers Covers debt
  • Increased revenue guidance
  • Expected Catalysts
    • China Indication approval with 10 Million milestone payment.
    • Partner for NEW Pipeline candidate (as indicated by management)
    • Positive earnings (which will include one-off liabilities)

Added background on FGEN

• 'Through a joint venture between AZ and FibroGen, Evrenzo generated $284 million in sales in China in 2023, a healthy rate of 36% growth year over year. That translated into $101 million in revenue for FibroGen. Evrenzo is on target to reach 130 to 150 million in revenues for 2024. A 60% increase year on year' This has a 35m market cap doing 130m in revs for a single drug?
  • These revenues are increasing, however patents expire and generic drugs will flood the market.
  • New indication approval is expected.
    • Expect approval decision for roxadustat in chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA) in China in the second half of 2024. If approved, FibroGen will receive a $10 million milestone payment from AstraZeneca.
  • Expectations China
    • For 2024, FibroGen expects Evrenzo’s China sales will continue to grow to a range from $300 million to $340 million despite a 7% price reduction from renewed coverage under the country’s national insurance scheme
  • Financial:
    • Second quarter total roxadustat net sales in China¹ by FibroGen and the distribution entity jointly owned by FibroGen and AstraZeneca (JDE) was $92.3 million, compared to $76.4 million in the second quarter of 2023, an increase of 21% year over year, driven by a 33% increase in volume.
    • Roxadustat continues to be the number one brand based on value share in the anemia of CKD market in China.
    • For 2024, FibroGen’s expected full year net product revenue under U.S. GAAP is raised to a range between $135 million to $150 million, representing expected full year roxadustat net sales in China¹ by FibroGen and the JDE of $320 million to $350 million, due to continued strong performance in China.