$65 oil on the horizon if a recession hits, Citi warns
Ed Morse, Citi Managing Director & Global Head of Commodity Research, joins ‘Fast Money’ to discuss the likelihood that Brent crude oil prices fall to $65 a barrel, what happens if Europe falls into a recession and how to keep oil prices lower than they currently are.
I have followed Ed's calls. He has been very bearish all year for crude oil. I remain long crude assets and more share the view of Jeff Currie at Goldman.
Ed Morse has been a bear for a long time but what I look at are the oil service providers – SLB, HAL, BKR, etc. Their revenue projects are nothing consist with a cyclical up cycle. In fact, their dismal stock prices, still well below 2018 levels for SLB and HAL, are the true tell that there remains too much supply. We're in a tight physical market but this is merely a transitory situation, nothing multiyear. All the famous oil bulls – Amrita Sen, Jeff Currie, Paul Sankey, Helima Croft- are hooked on "models" that ignore service providers. Until service providers show meaningful revenues (pre 2018 levels), the smart money knows the supply market is about to be saturated again.
This guy is crazy. Everyone screamed that the fed needed to cool the economy. Fed starts cooling the economy and they scream recession. Sky is always falling no matter if it is up or down. I can see oil hitting $65 by the end of 2022 and have said this for a month. Oil WILL NOT hit $45 in 2023.
2019 we were at $50 a barrel but manufacturing had fallen to a decades low and farmers were on Trump welfare. Now manufacturing has roared back and farmers have more orders than they can fill. There is no reason that 2023 would be any different. Even if the war stopped today the demand will still be present.
If its a quick recession oil will be around $65-70 but, we are currently in slow inflation can also be said as soft landing. So a quick recession is not on the table as many industries all over the world are going bankrupt now. If its a slow long deep recession oil prices will be around $45-55. And a deep recession is almost equal to a depression.
Yes oil is dropping but it’s a little to late to short oil or sell calls let’s wait until oil go back up a little He is right and I am sticking to my SPY trade which is : selling short put spread strike price 365 put short and 360 long expiration date 7/15/22 This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell stocks, options, or futures .
Buy the dip. FAAMG stocks (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are such cash cows, and their stocks have dropped -27% since the highs in 11/2021 that I expect they would buy back their shares.
Here's why: – people have jobs, under 4% unemployment – banks report the highest balances in people's accounts – house values are way up, people can always pull out the equity for cash – credit card sales for restaurants and hotels are up. – Back to school will increase retail sales. I have to buy the kids a new Apple Macbook and iPad and dorm stuff.
Nothing to worry about. Q1 is historically low retail sales for the last 4 years. Morgan Stanley data shows that credit and debit card spending are way up (restaurants and hotel), but people just aren't buying lowend retail (Walmart, Target) as much. Side note: the news media are against social media because advertisers have left them and now mostly advertise on social media.
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I have followed Ed's calls. He has been very bearish all year for crude oil. I remain long crude assets and more share the view of Jeff Currie at Goldman.
Can I say it is East and then suddenly say no it is west .. it can happen in stock market .. so what to believe and what not is a big question
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Nice
Lower oil price good for consumers
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Jeff Currie at Goldman says $140 oil.
Ed Morse has been a bear for a long time but what I look at are the oil service providers – SLB, HAL, BKR, etc. Their revenue projects are nothing consist with a cyclical up cycle. In fact, their dismal stock prices, still well below 2018 levels for SLB and HAL, are the true tell that there remains too much supply. We're in a tight physical market but this is merely a transitory situation, nothing multiyear. All the famous oil bulls – Amrita Sen, Jeff Currie, Paul Sankey, Helima Croft- are hooked on "models" that ignore service providers. Until service providers show meaningful revenues (pre 2018 levels), the smart money knows the supply market is about to be saturated again.
This guy is crazy. Everyone screamed that the fed needed to cool the economy. Fed starts cooling the economy and they scream recession. Sky is always falling no matter if it is up or down.
I can see oil hitting $65 by the end of 2022 and have said this for a month. Oil WILL NOT hit $45 in 2023.
2019 we were at $50 a barrel but manufacturing had fallen to a decades low and farmers were on Trump welfare. Now manufacturing has roared back and farmers have more orders than they can fill. There is no reason that 2023 would be any different. Even if the war stopped today the demand will still be present.
If its a quick recession oil will be around $65-70 but, we are currently in slow inflation can also be said as soft landing. So a quick recession is not on the table as many industries all over the world are going bankrupt now. If its a slow long deep recession oil prices will be around $45-55. And a deep recession is almost equal to a depression.
Is this guy serious? HAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
So excited for this recession! 🥳
Yes oil is dropping but it’s a little to late to short oil or sell calls let’s wait until oil go back up a little He is right and I am sticking to my SPY trade which is : selling short put spread strike price 365 put short and 360 long expiration date 7/15/22 This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell stocks, options, or futures .
OPEC is not going to hit their target. They never do.
Buy the dip. FAAMG stocks (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are such cash cows, and their stocks have dropped -27% since the highs in 11/2021 that I expect they would buy back their shares.
Here's why:
– people have jobs, under 4% unemployment
– banks report the highest balances in people's accounts
– house values are way up, people can always pull out the equity for cash
– credit card sales for restaurants and hotels are up.
– Back to school will increase retail sales. I have to buy the kids a new Apple Macbook and iPad and dorm stuff.
Nothing to worry about. Q1 is historically low retail sales for the last 4 years.
Morgan Stanley data shows that credit and debit card spending are way up (restaurants and hotel), but people just aren't buying lowend retail (Walmart, Target) as much.
Side note: the news media are against social media because advertisers have left them and now mostly advertise on social media.