2024 Bitcoin Price Prediction (CRAZY!)

The CRAZIEST 2024 Bitcoin Price Prediction
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SOURCES:

15 years of BTC Power Law
byu/Econophysicist1 inBitcoin

https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/btc-trolololo-model-revisited-still-valid-today-is-really-a-power-law-in-disguise-da11b58cf5de
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
https://francisco-rodrigues.medium.com/power-law-universality-in-nature-c933f271bda8


https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3141050
https://galileo.phys.virginia.edu/classes/609.ral5q.fall04/LecturePDF/L14-GALILEOSCALING.pdf
https://blogs.sas.com/content/iml/2016/12/05/power-law-log-transform-data.html

Giovanni Socials:
Tweets by Giovann35084111
https://www.facebook.com/gsantostasi/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/giovanni-santostasi-62253818

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So today I want to show you how a simple math rule that’s able to predict patterns of the universe has also accurately tracked the last 15 years of bitcoin’s price and I’m going to show you what this formula says Bitcoin should be worth 10 years from now I know

It sounds crazy but check this out it’s Math and Science now if a magician was to show you a deck of cards at first you might look at it and see that it looks like a random shuffled deck of cards and you wouldn’t necessarily know its Secrets because the secret is that it’s

A stacked deck of cards and it allows me to cut to a very specific playing card like the King of Spades is that the King of Spades yeah that would have been awkward but when we look out at the universe most of us see our lives as completely random like

Everything is chaos based on unpredictable systems that interact with each other in no specific way but believe it or not the universe is like a stacked deck of cards it also has a pattern to it except the universe is so big and so complex we can’t see those

Patterns but they’re there hidden inside of mathematics in what are called Power laws power laws can tell us how big earthquakes get they can tell us how big cities get they can be used to explain the distribution of wealth around the world the popularity of words inside of

Books and languages the size of brains versus the size of bodies the length of roads in cities the size of craters on the moon and how long it takes for planets to orbit around the sun Now power laws help us find relationships between two very different things in a

Way that allows us to observe the past and make predictions about the future in everything in biology Society technology and even financial markets now an astrophysicist Applied Mathematics and recently discovered that Bitcoin has followed one of these laws of power so if you’re the kind of nerd that likes

This stuff let’s do a deep dive from which there is no coming out of and I’m going to show you how these laws of power describe the secrets of the universe and what it says bitcoin’s price could be worth at the next cycle Peak and 10 years from now so let’s get

Into it hi my name is Andre J hope you’re doing well come for the finance and stay for the Magic The Magic of the power laws so let me give you an example of one of the coolest power laws from one of my favorite Youtubers of all time

Michael from Vsauce in his video the zif mystery now in his video Michael explains that the most popular English words of all time are the of and to a in is I that it for you was with on as have but be they sounds like some sort of an

Old spell for a ritual but believe it or not if you graph the most popular words that are written or spoken you’ll start to see a pattern that you wouldn’t think should be there you’ll find that the second most popular word will show up half as often as the first the third

Most popular word will appear 1/3 as often as the first the fourth word will appear 1/4th as often and the fifth one as fifth as often and so on and so forth for every single word each word’s popularity is directly proportional to one divided by its rank now if you plot

This Rank and frequency on a log log chart you’ll see a perfectly straight line revealing the clue that language is an example of a power law in action now you might be thinking okay that’s kind of a weird coincidence but how is it us use F that you can draw a straight line

Through a bunch of dots it’s useful because if you can find the exponential relationship between two different things you can make some really accurate predictions about it in Michael’s video he was able to guess that the word sauce should appear roughly 30,000 times between all its uses on Wikipedia and

The Gutenberg project and his guess came extremely close to reality now this ability to make accurate predictions applies not just to the English language but to every language in the world including ancient languages we still haven’t fully figured out and the question is how is something so humanly

Complex and so unique as language is easily predictable by mathematics but first hey gang welcome to your 8-minute ab workout routine I’m just kidding but just like working out is something you have to do for a really long time before you see results investing is kind of the

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Bonuses by using the link you see below or the link you find in the description of the video thank you Weeble for sponsoring this portion of the video and now let’s get back to it but now let’s go a lot farther literally let’s go into deep space an astronomer named johans

Kepler discovered that there’s a power law relationship between how far away a planet planet was from the Sun and how long it took that planet to orbit around the sun turns out knowing the secret power law allowed us to predict this motion for every single planet in our

Solar system and the relationship there once plotted is again in a perfectly straight line why why is there a pattern to space rocks circling around a giant ball of fire shouldn’t it be kind of random you’re probably like what is this video about is this even about Bitcoin

How did I get lost in this YouTube recommended section at 2: a.m. I promise I’ll get to the Bitcoin part and connect the dots but this is so much more interesting than Bitcoin because it gets even crazier almost exactly 414 years ago in the year 1610 before Galileo

Found the answer to the question of what was at the center of our solar system and that the Earth orbited around the sun he had a different question why weren’t there really big animals and it’s a good question like what’s the biggest the biggest animal could ever

Get and using his early studies of animal data he found that as an animal doubled in size its mass increased by a factor of eight times and he also discovered that the bone area would only grow by four times he calculated that if a gorilla got 10 times bigger its mass

Would go up by a thousand times but its bone size would only go up by a factor of 100 so using this power law is how we’re able to predict and understand that there’s a physical limit to how big an animal could get and beyond the limit it would just Crush itself underneath

Its own weight and that’s how we know that King Kong can’t really exist at least not with the gravity that’s here on Earth I mean he might exist I haven’t seen him maybe he’s an amphibian but that’s why the biggest living creature that has ever existed in the history of

Earth is also underwater the blue whale now throughout the next few centuries we keep on discovering these power laws and 32 2 years later in the year 1932 Max kber discovered another Power law it was the metabolic rate or the energy consumption of living things as it

Relates to their size and when mapped out again on a log log scale it created a perfect line even brain size versus physical size was found to have a power law and as Michael from Vsauce pointed out power laws predicted a lot of other things as well like solar flare

Intensities protein sequences the amount of views a website gets how strong earthquakes are how often academic papers are referenced last names the firing patterns of neural networks ingredients used for cooking the number of phone calls people get the diameter of craters on the moon how often people

Die in Wars chess move openers and the rate at which people forget and just in case you need more proof that we live in a simulation World governed by invisibly written laws there’s over a 100 power laws that describe patterns in things that shouldn’t exist patterns in artificial intelligence astronomy

Physics psychology biology meteorology mathematics economics and finance so then the question is can this model be used to predict the price of Bitcoin and this is what I’ve been setting you up for this entire video according to astrophysicist Giovani santasi who discovered this connection he says that

15 years of data shows that Bitcoin also follows a power law principle giovan’s Theory says that bitcoin’s price is not as random as it seems there is Randomness to it but over the long term Bitcoin price follows a specific mathematical model and it’s not just a mathematical formula that some guy drew

A line through but instead it follows a power law that are like the ones observed throughout the Universe now what I want to show you right now is a graph that’s going to look kind of similar to what you might have seen before but this one is not the stock to

Flow model it’s very different so here’s what it looks like the yellow line represents the current price the red line represents What’s called the support line which is the level Bitcoin usually never drops below and it’s been incredibly accurate the green line is What’s called the linear regression line

Which you can think of sort of like the fair value price where Bitcoin will eventually go back to and the purple line is the resistance line that Bitcoin typically maxes out at and this one is the hardest to predict by the way that chart that I just showed you is a log

Linear chart which has been super useful in telling us where the bottom of Bitcoin is and over the last 15 years it’s been scary accurate now another chart that’s a log log chart like the one that we see in power laws is much more useful in telling us when bitcoin’s

Price could 10x and then 10x again and again so let me show you that right now the days on the xaxis start from the first block that was ever mined called The Genesis block which advances by a factor of 10 and the same is true for

Its price on the y- AIS and on this chart you can see just how incredibly linear bitcoin’s growth has been especially if you remove the outliers now for Bitcoin these outliers look really big but the truth is outliers exist in every system but with enough data over time they just become less

Noticeable now if this sounds extremely confusing because it does to me I did get in touch with Giovani who has the PHD in astrophysics who created all these charts and who noticed the relationship of the power lot of Bitcoin and here’s what he said so the beauty of

That is basically showing how Bitcoin is scaling up so this concept of scale a scale is this changes in order of magnitude right so you go from one to 10 to 100 to a thousand right it is important because Bitcoin went from being basically nothing literally

Nothing or a fraction of a dollar right and uh and then it went to a dollar and people got excited and he went to 10 and 100,00 right so in few years in 15 years he went up almost six or orders of magnitude that is amazing almost I think

Actually no assets on earth have has done that in the history of mankind but I know right and so it’s important to look at the Scale based on what this graph is showing us on a log log scale yes what will bitcoin’s Peak be at the

Next cycle uh so this is the next Peak right so here so I will say close to 200 close to 200 if let’s take the worst case scenario that he continues to do this mathematical Trend the Peaks are in on on an exponential decay so you can

Calculate what will be the next Peak based on that at least 150,000 so I’m pretty sure and that’s in what year middle of 2025 and what happens in 10 Years everybody wants to know when it is a million right so let me tell you that it will be 1 million in

2033 so July of 203 three now I’m generally kind of skeptical and I think to myself but gavan couldn’t you draw a line through just about any set of data points like if you mapped out gold or the stock market and you drew it on a

Log log scale wouldn’t you be able to draw a line straight through that and find some kind of pattern turns out you can’t and he ran the numbers here’s gold for example over a 35-year period on a log log scale you can’t draw a line through it in any linear kind of way

That shows a pattern because there is no power l in time here also here’s the S&P 500 over a 70-year period you almost can if you don’t start from the beginning and that might be a function of leaving the gold standard and inflation but here’s the crazy part that I left out

All the lines that you saw drawn in all these graphs were not drawn by human hands Giovanni doesn’t look at these graphs and thinks there’s a pattern here I think I’ll draw a line through it all the lines that were drawn were drawn as functions of mathematical formulas that

Are way over my head but Giovani did show me that there’s a way to measure the accuracy of these models based on something called regression which is the r squar number now in bitcoin’s case for this model it’s 953 in layman’s terms that translates to 95.3% accuracy when applying all this data to its regression in other words its past 15-year history and no other asset even comes close to that we are dealing if these hypothesis that we are dealing with a power law is true is not another formula it’s something very

Intrinsic to the system that it’s almost like a fingerprint for the system and the system will continue to do that in the future in fact as it grows it should be even more stable yeah it’s more difficult to change it it’s such a big Network that it it cannot be gained

Again not a precise prediction more of a ballpark number but you can think about this kind of stuff more like predicting the climate see weather patterns are really hard to tell because they fluctuate dayto day but the climate is that long-term Trend that we can predict

And that’s sort of what these models are doing and if Bitcoin continues to follow the power law like it has been for the last 15 years then all of this should theoretically be accur it but the question is will this actually happen here’s my opinion I’m not a

Mathematician and I am not an astrophysicist and you’re not going to find the answer from a dude that looks like Harry Potter everything I’ve shown you in this video I learned from making this video after spending an embarrassing amount of time researching for it so I don’t think my opinion is

Going to be very insightful or very valuable but I wouldn’t be very surprised if bitcoin’s price followed some kind of a power law now as someone who has bought Bitcoin and held it for a long long time now one of my biggest worries is that Bitcoin was just a trend

That would maybe eventually go away but I think that worries disappeared once they approved the spot Bitcoin ETF which tells me that Bitcoin is a new asset class and it’s here to stay because it’s been approved by the traditional financial markets now my worry today is

That for a lot of people Bitcoin is almost like a religion which I don’t really care for that part but I can look Beyond it now past that point though I think Bitcoin is for the first time in human history something that combines technological psychological societal financial and macroeconomic Concepts all

Into one thing that you can buy 24 hours a day 7 days a week so maybe bitcoin’s price is not a function of Randomness but instead it’s a power law that follows complex networks that exhibit very complex human behaviors so maybe in 10 years Bitcoin could be worth

A million dollars or maybe this is completely wrong but I’d love to know if you could find this video 18 months from 2024 after the happing when we’ll know more data and I’d love to see 10 years into the future if you ever stumble on this video I want to give credit to

Physicist Joffrey West who’s published incredible amounts of research into this Michael from bsau who has a way better video about power laws Francisco Rodriguez for his article on medium and of course I want to thank Dr Giovani sanasi for letting me pick his brain and making the connection between power laws

And Bitcoin and I’m going to leave the entire 1 and a half hour conversation that we had if you’re a nerd and you want to listen to it as well as all the resources that I used for this video if you want to make your head spin but in a

Good way I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day smash the like button subscribe if you haven’t already don’t forget to grab your free stocks links are down below and then go track them automatically with a spreadsheet link Down Below in my patreon love you thank

You so much for watching this video I’d love to see you back here on Monday and Friday