Ethereum ETF Coming Soon?

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In this video, I discuss why it is quite likely that the SEC will continue to delay its decision on a US spot Ethereum ETF.

Not only is there a political calculation being taken by SEC chair Gary Gensler, but also ETH clearly passes the Howey Test and as such should be considered an unregistered security.

The first step on the path towards an ETF would be for Ethereum to register with the SEC as a security. This would involve disclosing many unsavory things about insider holdings, conflicts of interest, and risk factors that Ethereum does not want the market to know.

So Ethereum will remain in the worst possible position, losing market share to digital commodities like Bitcoin and also losing market share to centralized VC-coins like Solana.

As such, I expect ETH to continue to bleed out value relative to BTC.

If an ETH ETF were ever approved, it would be an amazing teachable moment on the differences between proof of stake and proof of work. Under proof of stake, an entity like BlackRock or Coinbase that owned more coins would indeed have more control over the network. This would inevitably lead to an escalation of the OFAC-imposed censorship that is already taking place on Ethereum.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

SEC delaying ETH application decisions:
https://decrypt.co/214137/sec-delays-decision-blackrock-ethereum-spot-etf-application
https://decrypt.co/213480/sec-punts-fidelty-spot-ethereum-etf-decision-to-march
https://decrypt.co/214301/sec-punts-yet-another-spot-ethereum-etf

ETH spot ETF unlikely for years:
https://www.theblock.co/post/274853/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-2025-2026-td-cowen

ETH pretends to be a commodity, but can a commodity have a leader and roadmap?
https://www.theblock.co/post/269799/vitalik-buterin-shares-updated-2024-roadmap-for-ethereum
https://www.theblock.co/post/271847/vitalik-buterin-ethereum-gas-limit-increase

SPY:
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy

Ethereum cofounder Joe Lubin owns much of the ecosystem as well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Lubin_(entrepreneur)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensys
https://www.theblock.co/post/84232/ethereum-infrastructure-provider-infura-is-down
https://cointelegraph.com/news/metamask-will-start-collecting-user-ip-addresses

Ethereum validators enforcing OFAC compliance:
https://www.mevwatch.info/

Predictions of a “flippening” were wrong:

Bitcoin is no longer the flagship asset of crypto.

Ethereum is.

Maybe you think I'm calling this too early.

"Wait for the flippening"

Nah. The writing's on the wall. Soon this will be the consensus view.

— RYAN SΞAN ADAMS – rsa.eth 🦄 (@RyanSAdams) February 3, 2023

Bitcoin (there is no second best):

There is no second best. #Bitcoin

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) October 8, 2021

BTC/ETH meme from BTC Sessions:

Did you do your proof of work today?#100aDayUntil100k pic.twitter.com/dNVGhD154W

— BTC Sessions 😎 (@BTCsessions) January 29, 2024

I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos. My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.

#Bitcoin
#Ethereum
#etf

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This is Matthew crder from Bitcoin University and today I wanted to answer the question is there an ethereum ETF coming soon the answer to that is actually nope there’s not there’s not an ethereum ETF coming anytime soon the SEC just delayed black Rock’s application for one of these as it did to Fidelity

As it did to grayscale as well and I agree with TD Cohen’s analysis here that a spot ethereum ETF approval in the US is unlikely until late 2025 or early 202 so I would actually push back that timeline to never TD Cohen says though we do not expect the SEC in 2024 to

Approve a spot ethereum ETF we believe there’s no upside for SEC chair Gary gendler to approve a spot ethereum ETF given how upset Progressive Democrats were over the agency’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month gendler needs the support of progressives to push forward his agenda

In this election year also if gendler pursues a different role such as treasury secretary in the event of president President Joe Biden winning a second term he will still need the backing of progressives our view remains that gendler is in no hurry to approve an ethereum ETF as he would first like

More experience with the performance of the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF so that’s the analysis from DTD Cen I think there’s another huge problem though that’s not mentioned in this article and that is that eth as we’ve talked about many times on this channel is an unregistered security and gendler

Knows it as well it’s not a digital commodity like Bitcoin unlike Bitcoin had a large pre-mine SL pre-sale and also eth has a leader and has a road map real Commodities don’t have leaders and road maps as you might imagine what’s a road map for corn for example or weed or

Soybeans or gold these do not have road maps because they’re not Securities they are actual Commodities and Bitcoin is the only digital commodity vitalic buter and shares updated 2024 road map for ethereum just replace this with Corner wheat and you’ll see how ridiculous it is I’d say if you’re enjoying this video

So far though just to help out the channel by please subscribing liking this video leaving a comment question and suggestion for a future video also share this video with a friend or family member if you can the other thing about Commodities is they don’t set gas fees

For themselves as vitalic has been doing for ethereum now you can certainly create an ETF that is backed by Securities this isn’t the question many of the best most well-known ETFs like the S&P 500 the spiders these are backed by a basket Securities in other words a

Basket of stocks the largest market cap stocks but you just can’t create an ETF that is backed by unregistered Securities like ethereum and this is something that genzo understands quite well I think so while eth register with the SEC as a security this would be the

First step to creating an ETF out of it it would have to pass from being an unregistered security to being registered with the SEC I don’t think it will though because if it does if ethereum did register at the SEC as a security it would need to file

Disclosures that are similar to what you see when a stock files for an IPO this is the famous S1 form including things like Insider Holdings conflicts of interest key person risk and every other potential risk factor and if ethereum were to file something like that all that Insider dirt and messiness the Joe

Luben stuff all the vitalic stuff would be revealed to the world investors would flee like Rats from a sinking ship you have to ask yourself why do you think that ethereum did its Ico in Switzerland and has done everything possible not to register with the SEC is it because its

Hands are squeaky clean or is it because they’re huge Insider Holdings and conflicts of interest and you don’t even need to be an Insider to understand how this works for example Joe Luben who’s one of the co-founders of ethereum is also the founder of a company called consensus we’ve talked about this many

Times before it’s a software company but it’s a very special software company because it happens to own two of the biggest companies in the ethereum ecosystem in fura which which is a node provider because it’s so difficult to run your own ethereum node as well as metamask these are both owned by the

Same guy who is a co-founder of ethereum and he can exert a lot of control over the ecosystem in this way for example metam Mass starting to collect user IP addresses I honestly do hope that I’m wrong I actually hope that ethereum gets a spot ETF in the US I don’t think it’s

Likely anytime soon but if it did that would be a wonderful teachable moment about the differences between proof of work and proof of stake under a proof of work protocol like Bitcoin owning more coins does not give you any additional power over the network under proof of

Stake by contrast to owning more coins does give you additional power over the network under proof of stake Network the more coins that you own in stake the more frequently you get to validate and issue new blocks and decide what transactions are in those blocks so if Black Rock were ever to accumulate

Significant Holdings in eth due to an ETF it would end up exercising permanent influence over the protocol and block formation ethereum is already bending the need of government censorship when it comes to current block production 48% of the blocks in the last seven days have been enforcing ofac compliance in

Other words they’re not including transactions that the US Treasury Department and ofac determine to be non-compliant so this is unbelievable this is already an almost captured currency and you can imagine what would happen if coinbase got their hands on even more eth that was being staked uh

Because they they were backing the the ETF so you can only imagine what sort of government censorship would come with that so there really is no future for The rubbe Goldberg machine known as ethereum and the market is clearly beginning to figure it out remember eth’s heralded move to proof of stake

How was going to flip Bitcoin we heard this a lot we have Ryan Shan Adams here saying that Bitcoin is no longer the flagship asset of crypto ethereum is maybe you think I’m calling this too early wait for the flippening n the writing’s on the wall soon this will be

The consensus view Well turns out that Ryan wasn’t exactly right about that ethereum moved to proof of stake in September mid-september of 2022 and has basically gone straight down against Bitcoin since then so this has been a disastrous move I compared it to castration in a video when it first came

Out because what ethereum did is it ripped out one of the only fair things about ethereum which was the proof of work algorithm so what’s happened in fact though uh the ethereum guys were completely wrong about this what has happened the flippening has turned into the flopping and Bitcoin is continuing

To devour ethereum that’s because ethereum is not ultrasound money it’s also not a very good centralized ship coin so it’s basically getting destroyed from both sides it’s getting destroyed by Bitcoin on one side and it’s getting destroyed by even crap coins like salana on the other side here’s a chart of

Salana taking market share and steal heing market cap from eth so I think what’s going to happen eth will continue to bleed value against Bitcoin for the rest of our lives so i’ encourage you get on the winning team while you still can don’t listen to eth influencers take

A look at these charts and ask yourself if you’re feeling lucky ask yourself what it is that you’ve been missing because when it comes to currency there really is no second best and that is Bitcoin which is the world’s preeminent digital currency the world’s preeminent digital commodity I also want to thank BTC

Sessions for providing the image it looks like an AI image from for the uh thumbnail for today’s video If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit that subscribe and like buttons hit the notification Bell if you want to be notified when I publish my next video

And let me know your questions and comments in the comment section below thanks all for watching and I’ll see you in the next video