Bitcoin dumping, giving up on crypto (trader’s response)

Bitcoin dumping, giving up on crypto (trader’s response)

all right guys we’re back on location
for another macro cycle update Bitcoin
cryptocurrencies the stock markets and
interest rates as well we’ve seen
something for the first time this year
I’ll get into that in just a moment if
you are enjoying the non-nonsense titles
and thumbnails and of course analysis
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nice and quick all right let’s crack on
probably want to cover Bitcoin first up
and I want to discuss the time frames
now when it comes to reaching a new
alltime high there was a couple of
comments yesterday people are
referencing bitcoin price and the
all-time high based on where it was at
the Haring and then also now that it’s
hit an alltime high how long how much
longer that’s going to take to get to
another new all-time high and from what
I can see the consensus is it should
happen soon obviously we’ve seen Bitcoin
down now uh in the last 24 hours it got
rejected at another 50% level as we’ve
been watching
it just keeps trying to climb and get
rejected so keeps hitting those levels
and coming back down overall my position
has not changed when it comes to the
macro I’m still macro bullish but I
think this is the wave four that we’ve
been waiting for and where that low
comes in is something I want to discuss
in just a moment so with the current
position of Bitcoin where it’s been down
now from the alltime high for about 45
days this is the lowest close it’s had
since the 27th of February so about 63
days what we’ve seen from Bitcoin in the
past sorry the sun’s getting a bit
bright here but anyway you want to
listen to me not look at me what we’ve
seen from Bitcoin in the past is 60 days
down that was in 2023 we saw it twice um
from those Peaks from 30k down to 25k so
it happened twice right now other people
tend to think that because Bitcoin
reached a new alltime high what’s
happened in the past is it only took a
few weeks for Bitcoin to get back to
another new all-time high and that
obviously not the case it’s not my
opinion it’s just what’s happened it’s
been 48 days now since the previous old
alltime high on the 14th of March and I
don’t think it’s going to happen in the
next week or two so that would then lead
us to about 60 days so that could bring
us out to mid May as we are now the 1st
of May and that could be 60 days down
right it still needs to climb back to a
new all-time high that’s only just
looking at it from the current
perspective so that’s the first thing
alltime high price
Bitcoin has hit those before 2020 okay
hit a new alltime high only took a
couple of weeks and then it took off
again so people were sort of referencing
that um in 2016 or early 2017 it hit a
new all-time high it took a few more
weeks about a month or two and then it
hit a new alltime high again we are now
into that two-month period And I don’t
think it’s going to happen anytime soon
when I say soon you know the week or two
to get to that sort of 60 days um so
that’s the that’s the all-time highs now
with the harving similar sort of of
thing it’s got to a harving point people
think it just sort of takes a few weeks
and then it sort of blasts off again
we’ve looked at this when it comes to
the data itself and the swings on the
chart the months consecutive months in
the green and consecutive months in a
row right from from lows to highs
September was the low March was the top
sort of six to seven months there when
you count it out in the days
and we were anticipating a pause or a
correction
I don’t think it’s going to be a major
correction but um there’s obviously been
a correction we’re at 20% now so similar
to what we’ve seen in the past year for
Bitcoin 20% Corrections 20
22% okay so I’ve covered in terms of
time frames with the alltime high and
how I don’t think it’s going to happen
like last time 2020 or 20
2016 that doesn’t mean that this time is
different I think you just got to follow
the pattern of technical analysis not
what influen is reference when it comes
to has to be this alltime High has to be
that alltime high in terms of time
frames right what we’ve seen with
patents is the number of green months in
a row sort of an easy way to look at it
is if you can take Rules From Any
technical analysis rules and then apply
them to different markets and there is
some sort of um and they work in other
markets then those rules stack up to the
test of time that’s just an overs simpli
oversimplify
um understanding or meaning of ta and
the rules right but if you if you pull
something from the Haring and say that
um well the it happened this time on the
Haring therefore it must happen the next
time you can’t apply that to any other
Market cu no other markets have Haring
and everyone knows about the harving so
it’s going to change over time right so
that’s in terms of where we are with how
the market is moving from the lows uh
sorry how it’s been corrected and now
it’s trying to find a bottom
so what we looked at with those months
up we’ve looked at the 3 days down
signal that also suggested that we could
be below the alltime high for longer
than last time we’ve looked at three red
weeks it’s what Michael had come up with
on his channel that’s also occurred and
so far everything seems to be playing
ball to those signals suggesting that
we’re going to see a longer time
underneath this alltime higher than what
we have done in the
past when does that happen all right
well for the stock market we’re
watching out for a bottom in May and
then if it we happen to get that rally
and it comes back down again then we’ll
look out for something roughly around
June July because it’s happened before
and we’re looking at Cycles but I’ll
update that on the on the channel um
because it’d be better just to look at
some some graphs on that but essentially
if you can just remember that we’re
looking out for some sort of low this
month and we’ll see how everything
reacts what else is going on is the US
dollar is finding some strength again so
it’s probably going to be a bit
difficult for Bitcoin and
cryptocurrencies to go up while the US
dollar is finding a little bit more
strength yet again so we’re going to
keep that in the backs of our mind so
we’ve looked at Bitcoin we’ve looked at
the uh time frames to a potential low
we’re watching out for something in May
which then means it’s got to climb back
to a new all-time high so it could be
two months down a month or two up which
would then put us at around 3 4 months
until it reaches a new alltime high
which could mean a new all-time high in
the second half of
2024 I think at this rate we got two
months to go for the first half probably
seems unlikely that Bitcoin would reach
a new all-time high um in this half of
2024 yeah maybe it happens late June
we’ll wait and see right there’s plenty
of time to
go but in terms of where it’s coming
down to it’s getting to a better risk
reward
area than um obviously the last 6 weeks
last 6 weeks was it an all-time high so
what does that mean essentially we’ve
seen it come back 20% it’s done that
before could it go further yes we’ve got
a 20 uh we’ve got a 50% level coming in
at $56,000 that would be 24% from the
alltime high
um if these numbers are running a little
bit quick let me know keep watching the
channel hit the Subscribe and like and
all that sort of stuff I didn’t mention
that at the beginning so make sure you
do that enjoying these videos out on
location here beautiful cloudy day today
but it’s still damn hot okay so that’s
24% down would be 56k and then down to
sort of 51 52 53k that would take you
down to a 30% drop from the all-time
high so still within a healthy
correction it it just take long longer
to get back to the old alltime high
that’s how these things work so overall
I’m looking for a bottom coming in in
the um first half of 2024 and then work
our way out of that
low after that could be June because we
might see a bottom in May and then it’ll
start to work its way out of that low
not saying a new alltime high but I
expect a new alltime high probably in um
uh 2024 okay so that’s what I’m looking
at in that in that case for altcoin
we’re obviously still seeing many of
them bleed out and that’s the death of
crypto some people got a little bit
triggered by the death of crypto but
that is what happens that’s the feelings
the feeling is that crypto is dying
which is why it’s dropping slowly then
fast and then slowly again and then
quickly just takes it out you know it’s
just like a quick stab and the show’s
over you know death by Thousand Cuts and
then I don’t know one final stab to to
finish it off that’s a lot of old coins
um so yeah that that’s that’s the death
of crypto if you don’t like the the
saying all right I get it we’re probably
going to run out of words here for
titles but that’s the end of the that’s
the game here right so in this in this
stage for allcoins um as I’ve said some
of them look like they’re putting in
higher lows but it’s potentially few and
far
between and that’s because you’re not
going to see all of them be strong
towards the next half of the cycle
there’s going to be other things that
pop up there’s probably going to be New
Meme coins there’s probably going to be
new AI um couple of narratives of
obviously the Bitcoin narrative there of
um what are they real world assets so
rwa that’s not Bitcoin narrative but
rw’s uh what Bitcoin layer 2 coming up
lots of those things so anything that’s
been strung through this pump might not
do as well in the next pump I I
suggested that last year when injective
was taking off and it looks like
injective is really struggling to to
hold here not saying that it’s not going
to make any gains but it might not be
the same sort of gains as the next
latest um meme coin on bit coin that’s a
freaking AI real world asset
whatever right that’s the thing so
that’s what I’ll be looking out for and
I think that sort of timing comes
sometime in the second half of 2024 even
though I’ve talked about potential lows
forming for all coins when I say that
it’s keep an eye on the strong stuff
don’t go all in now that’s I’ve never
ever said go all in on anything because
you just don’t know where the low is
personally I like to wait for
confirmation and a push to the upside
others don’t like that and they they
rather DCA and all the way down you know
horses for courses whatever it is so
that’s alt coins I still think there’s
plenty of potential because of this next
wave up which leads me to why there’s a
next W um leg up and that would be the
macro markets well the traditional
markets on a macro cycle and for the
stock markets obviously they’ve been um
hit the last few weeks coming down
having a correction finally after such a
mega move up of 5 months don’t forget
that was out of October’s low last year
and from this point forward we’ve seen
the 3 weeks down so same sort of rule
applied on the stock markets and
potentially might see them come back to
test these lows that they’ve put in over
the last couple of weeks which could
then be reasonable um you know DCA
opportunity they’re down 5 6 7% from
their highs S&P NASDAQ that sort of
thing but again you want to be choosing
the stronger crypto uh Stronger stocks
you know something you look at the chart
of Tesla absolute trash look at Tesla I
know that offends a lot of people you
know about the fundamentals and what’s
coming up and blah blah blah uh the
chart tells you everything you need to
know CU if those fundamentalists are
buying they’re buying activity is going
to show up in the chart and and Tesla
has been a terrible purchase for the
last couple of years okay 2021 I think
was the top for memory and it’s been
down ever since it’s had some big
bounces but that looks like the markings
of some sort of distribution we’ll wait
and see it can go from 140 to 200 and
anything in right but it hasn’t been
breaking any other highs so keep that in
mind if you are looking to get into any
any sort of stocks so stock markets
overall I think you’re going to do
pretty well but the odd stock may not as
I’ve point out with Tesla now onto
interest rates and the thing we’ve seen
for the first time for a long time is
more pauses in 2024 and the first and
for the first time we’ve now only got
the probability of One Rate cut in 2024
don’t going back to January
2024 it was looking like there was going
to be a cut in every single at every
single meeting so that’s eight meetings
it did not happen we talked about that
in January on um on X and you could see
why because the trade was crowded now
I’m using that terminology of Jason
shapir I did that interview with him on
the weekend absolutely fantastic
interview if you haven’t seen it you can
find it on the channel only a couple
videos back but it’s just learning about
how these markets work so that you can
do better next time so the idea about
the crowded trade crowded Market it’s a
crowded trade is that you don’t want to
be on the same side as the crowd and
right now we’re starting to see a shift
towards more of the crowd
expecting a pause and interest rates and
maybe going to a cut maybe one cut maybe
one hike so we’re not sure yet and what
I learned from that interview is your
trades can go from you having the edge
absolute golden Edge then to becoming
neutral so our or you know when I say
our Michael and I and our members at Tia
our absolute Edge was at the bottoms for
Bitcoin everyone thought it was going
lower you remember all those
professional verified invested Traders
and all this BS talking about Bitcoin
going to 9 Grand and 12 Grand and this
Grand and then shorting it all the way
up which they guaranteed were not
shorting it on the way up um you just
can’t last in a trade that long and then
the rest of them who were all talking
about woff distribution again and it was
going to collapse and you know it just
went on and on and on the trade was so
crowded to the downside throughout late
22 and early 23 that it just seemed like
a no-brainer to be buying when when 90%
of people thought it was going to go
down and then obviously here we are
whereas now that was something that I
learned to where we are with Bitcoin it
seems like we’re in the sort of neutral
territory yeah it’s going to correct but
the biggest games were were earlier and
we we’ll have to get to a point where
most people think it would be short and
then
you would look to buy or go long because
the crowd would think it’s going to go
shorter there like it’s going to go down
so therefore there’s going to be more
shorts um so anyway in talking about
interest
rates we we got to bitcoin talking about
interest rates it seems like the crowd
is sort of feeling like it’s going to be
on pause maybe a cut maybe a hike
they’re not sure yet So eventually this
is probably going to turn as I talked
about with um Jason Shapiro that when
the crowd thinks it’s going to hike or
PS for too long maybe we’ll get this one
hike maybe it comes out of nowhere and
we get a cut so I think he’s I think
he’s right in that sense that we might
have to start pivoting on that idea I
don’t know when but for now it seems all
right it’ll be in the future when
everyone thinks oh it has to go up from
this point then we might get to a point
where we have to cut so we’ll wait and
see what happens with that it’s not
going to affect us too much um at this
stage and things are as they are as
we’ve seen them in the market so overall
recap Bitcoin crypto stock markets
everything seems like it’s on track in
terms of the cycle um I guess the main
thing here with with Bitcoin and the
timing is we’re looking at that uh that
low coming in probably in the first half
of 2024 and then we’ll see how the
market starts to climb out of that and
probably what I would like to see at
that low is that there’s going to be
heaps of negativity I don’t know if
we’re going to get it because of how
high we are in the market already but if
there was a ton of negativity um why
Bitcoin is not going to make it this
time because the ETFs are out because
the haring’s done because um whatever
else everything is done and the stock
market’s down then that might be a
reasonable time to be getting into the
market there if you can mix your Market
sentiment with your news and your
fundamentals and and your ta it’s going
to be a nice little mixture there to
understand that uh it could be looking
like a low coming in Smash Up the like
button I’ll be back in the office again
I hope you’ve enjoyed the uh another
outdoor entertainment here with the
Beautiful b heads surf was great if you
asked had a fantastic time um yeah I’ll
be back in the next one like let me know
you like this stuff and you like the
outdoors and I’ll see you back in the
next one cheers guys peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, crash, low and ATH timeframe
08:00 Altcoins, death of crypto, finding leaders
10:00 Stocks, macro cycle, lows, crowded trades, interest rates

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews