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    Housing Deflation


    I'm looking at Realtor.com trying to get a sense of CPI over the next month or two looking at housing prices and rent rates.

    I'm seeing huge availability, special pricing, and pricing decreases.

    For instance, here are rentals in Washington DC:

    https://preview.redd.it/mae3njfj920d1.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=98204d50f4d73bf22941b804be14765baa65e68f

    There are many units cutting prices, with multiple units available.

    Austin TX, and every metropolitan area I can think of shows the same.

    Am I crazy or is CPI going to see a rapid fall in the next month or two?

    Housing Deflation
    byu/UF_Secret_Account inwallstreetbets



    Posted by UF_Secret_Account

    View 38 Comments

    38 Comments

    3. BayAreaThrowawayq on

      House prices don’t affect CPI. It’s rent and owners equivalent rent.

    4. jr1tn on

      WSJ had an article analyzing this dilemma yesterday – listed rents have been falling, but it has failed to show up in the data for technical reasons. It was thought that there was just a lag, but other factors seem in play 

    6. Decent-Ad-4358 on

      Your not gonna see it instantly in the data….most people are locked into older leases, if your seeing prices lowering on the open market, gotta give it atleast 2-3 months to really start showing.

      There is also much more that goes into it, I think the reading will come in hot , don’t think we will see significant cooling until August

    8. Jtbny on

      All markets are different too. I just sold my house for $35k over asking in NY and bought for $65k less than list price in Florida.

    9. LostRedditor5 on

      I’ve been looking at housing prices on Zillow for over a year and I do only check a few locations but they are over a couple different states, I don’t check rents really

      So all those caveats put in I too have seen prices going down and more availability in houses

      I hate anecdotally information as data but I have to agree with you OP

    11. stumpyDgunner on

      All those cali boys who moved to Texas found out Texas.. kinda sucks lol and it’s about to get fuckin hot baby

    12. Gutierrezjm6 on

      Real estate agent here. Apt rents gave definitely fallen IF you pro-rate move in specials. 

      1 month free equates to an 8 percent drop in effective rent. My guess is lenders don’t like to see rents drop relative to the mortgage payments but offering rent concessions allows them to drop rents without alarming the bank who is looking primarily at cash flow.

    14. JumpyLolly on

      No. Homes here in cali are higher than ever and interest rates are unchanged until next year. Ur smoking that serious gd bammer man. Like wtf bammer weed. You chewing them seeds ain’t u??

    15. Sharaku_US on

      Vegas has seen some flattening and may I say reduction of superfluous expectations from owners and flippers over the past year.

      Anecdotally some people I know who moved from SoCal or NorCal to Vegas are now packing up because of BTO mandates.

    16. BarbellPadawan on

      I thought data points we actually spend money on like housing, energy, and food aren’t counted in CPI.

    17. ahnjooan on

      Probably what everyone else is saying + all the hidden costs of housing including insurance costs that a bunch of states don’t seem to be able to get or figure out. Unlikely CPI declines. Likely we see a liquidity event when all the bill comes due for all the debt people have piled onto.

    18. USAG1748 on

      I was going back and forth in DC until ~2 years ago and kept an apartment in Navy Yard.  The 2021-2022 rent was ~$3200/m. I suggested the building to a friend mis last year and rent had increased to over $4000. The same model unit is now $3500. This seems to be consistent with every other apartment I just checked. So, while rent has decreased it still appears to be on average 10% higher than 2022. Also, did you just search studios or something? 

    19. emperor_gordian on

      People buying right now are idiots, buying at the top and paying rent to the bank.

    21. Munkeyman18290 on

      Ill be god damned if Im ever giving up my 2.4% interest rate. I will stay in this house til I die then probably haunt it afterwards.

    25. gaius_worzels_bird on

      Welp I’m never affording a house. Back to the dumpster I go![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)

    26. Jcw122 on

      It depends what you’re looking at. Multi-family apartment buildings are in a big surplus due to Fed policies, and not desirable. Many of these are cutting their advertised rent costs. But not so much for single family.

    27. bodymindtrader on

      LOL you’re in another planet. CPI will be back to 4% in the summer!

    28. kahmos on

      They’re cutting the price of coffee from CPI because an 80% skyrocket is too much.

    29. fixerdrew02 on

      Very little inventory in Chicagoland. Houses bid up and sell within days

    30. Samjabr on

      Here’s the catch with rent portion of CPI – It doesn’t matter what rents are at any point in time, it only matters when people sign leases. So, when rents were rising, it didn’t really affect anyone who was locked into a rental agreement – makes sense, right? Your landlord could raise rent on your type of unit by $1,000 but if you have 11 months left on your lease, it wouldn’t affect you.

      This invariably creates a lag in the rent portion of the CPI – And the same lag is evidenced as rents drop. Your landlord could lower rates, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to call you up and tell you that you can now pay less rent – you have to wait until you renew your lease.

      Just putting that out there.

    31. Pin_ups on

      Ahahaha… ahahaha…yeah I guess you didn’t see that coming when prices all of a sudden increased by 35 to 50 percent from 2020 to 2022.

      The available homes for sale in Washington State are experiencing the same issues too. Apartment for one bed goes for 1500, 1700 with two bed, those apartments sqft are less than 1k sqft in a none metropolitain cities. Seattle and nearby cities almost double that.

      Homes for 2 bedroom and 2 bathrooms are almost 350k, that’s about 1.5ksqft or less , homes with 4 beds, 2.5 bath are about 450k and up, that’s about 2k to 2.5k sqft.

      Shall I fucking continue?

    32. unlock0 on

      CPI is a BS metric that doesn’t really capture most of the inflation we’ve seen in the past few years. 66% of households are excluded because it uses made up numbers for housing costs.

    35. Any_Yogurtcloset362 on

      The pricing decreases aren’t offsetting the massive run up it had going into 2024. These decreases so far look like JCPenny where you jack up the price 50% and then discount it 40% to make it look like people are getting a deal. The bigger indicator will be the spread between the current leaseholder and the advertised price.

      The fact there’s this many to me is a bad sign. Most leaseholders won’t move if the cost of moving outweighs the rental increase. Usually that’s under 10%. The fact there’s that many means they are still getting aggressive on their pricing which would be inflationary to me.

    36. Dicka24 on

      North of Boston stuff goes on, and it’s gone in 5 to 10 days. Prices are absurd too.

    37. OffensiveBiatch on

      There are 2 houses for sale within 5 miles of me. They are both listed with Sotheby’s.

      Make of that what you will

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