On Friday 24th May, S&P 500 closed at whispering distance to ATH [5140].
You may have heard/seen rants from prophets of doom on how US equities valuations are bloated, economy is under strain, inflation is out of control, and average consumers in great pain.
But these naysayers have been consistently been proven wrong quarter by quarter for the following reasons:
1) US is the leader in AI: US leads in AI chips developments, LLMs, Machine Learnings, APIs etc. These developments will usher in years of boost in productivity and increase in profitability in several unrelated industries.
Finance: Credit, Mortgage/Lending, Fraud Detection, Derivative Trading etc
Logistics: Autonomous Vehicles, Route Planning and Scheduling Deliveries, Remotely Operated Cargo Ships etc
Manufacturing: Semi autonomous humanoid robots, Process optimization, Swarm drones etc
Health: Diagnostics, Remote medical attention, Cancer Treatment, Gene Therapy etc
Climate: Carbon capture and sequestration, Pollution control, Waste management & disposal etc
Agriculture: Higher yields and greater resilience to climate and pests etc
Space Exploration: Unmanned mining bots, Habitats of human colonies on Moon and beyond, Autononous and self operating space factories etc
2) Equities analysts are consistently underestimating the strength of US and innovation ability of US companies: Michael Wilson [Morgan Stanley] is the latest example of the analysts in Ivory Towers proven detached to the mood on the street.
3) Fed is still accomodating: While the era of Quantitive Easing [QE] is over, and we have heard "higher for longer" often times. Fed continues tk be accomodating and market expectation to come running for rescue at first sign of economic trouble is not unrealistic.
4) Market crash is not be feared: Equities generate astonishing returns [100% and beyond] in the pre-crash stage, and give back maximum upto 30% in a short time, only to resume an upward trajectory. So talks of an imminent market crash should not cause fear to a retail investor who does Dollar Cost Averaging on a monthly basis.
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Posted by Option_Closeout
24 Comments
SPY 600 before the US election
Spy back down to 415 by the end of next week
Market averages roughly 100% over 7 years. We are 87% up on a 5 year basis. Who said we are super overvalued?
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Duality of man.
Top confirmed ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)
Lol at using “Space Exploration” unironically in a DD.
This is reassuring for the puts I’m swinging over the long weekend.
tl;dr – MURICA
>But these naysayers have been consistently been proven wrong quarter by quarter for the following reasons
>Proceeds to list completely unrelated topics
While the economy and consumer sentiment aren’t always aligned, there’s only so much water you can squeeze out of the average household before it cracks. Massive credit card debt can only go so far
Ok got it, all in 3X ultra short
Oh god this is gonna be the worst week for the S&P in decades isn’t it
PUTS it is
Not saying you are wrong, but if you are right, there’s going to be a lotta economist questioning their years worth of education on how economies work.
Only case we need: st0nks only go up
You forgot about the upcoming US civil war, buddy.
Some stocks are overvalued. Some are undervalued. As always. The economy is growing so the PE ratio is currently above the long term average. If we were in a recession the market would come down and PE would be below average. Let me know when the recession starts. It’s been called imminent for the past 3 years. Still waiting.
Every time I see a DD on here it’s always right…in the gutter. I guess I should sell before we go back down to 400
Depending on what happens the second Tuesday in November could be right. If Biden wins it’ll keep on going. If Trump wins it’s a chose your own handgrenade sort of adventure.
So poots then?
It will be up end of the year ✨️
TINA internalé
I’m sorry I don’t think this is the top but I’m just gonna make a bold prediction: there will be a correction or bear market before we start mining fucking asteroids.
Butt, butt, butt… BRICS want to be rid of the $$Dollar$$ wahhh wahhh….
Massive crash incoming