‘The Coming Great Conflict’: Civil War, Major Market Crash | Peter Grandich

‘The Coming Great Conflict’: Civil War, Major Market Crash | Peter Grandich

the the weight of the politics on what’s Happening is not being carefully analyzed and considered in the people’s Investments right now it’s an afterthought and what’s transpiring this and the separation and the political paralysis not just here but in other places in the world particularly in Europe I’ll close on this and maybe it’s something to talk that if you have me on again I believe that we’re seeing the beginning of the end of the European Union fan favorite Peter grit return to the show he is the founder of grage and Co he was on the show a couple months ago talking about five reasons why you should be building a financial Arc link down below if you want to revisit that interview or up here now we’ll be revisiting some of the themes today because it’s still more applicable than ever we’ll be talking about a lot of things today including Peter’s updated views on gold uranium copper base Metals mining stocks and the overall stock markets we’ll be getting Peter’s take on Ray Dio’s recent article about how there could be coming social unrest perhaps even civil war and we’ll be talking about some geopolitical issues as well Peter thinks that the EU for example is headed towards being dissolved very interesting take there uh now I’m launching a newsletter later this month so if you like to subscribe to get weekly updates on my thoughts my analysis as well as a summary recap the weeks the previous week’s uh highlight videos and news uh make sure to put your email uh down there uh Link in the description down below to subscribe to my newsletter it’ll be released later this month you’ll be one of the first to get the first edition if you subscribe now completely free Peter welcome back to the show good to see you same here David Morgan Stanley let’s start with Mark and news Morgan Stanley’s Wilson uh Mike Wilson says a 10% stock Mark Market correction is highly likely now uh you and um Mike Wilson both uh are kind of on the same page in terms of where the stock markets are going he’s been bearish for quite a while and uh so have you I believe uh let’s see if I can get your thoughts on this do you agree that a small pullback by the order of perhaps 10% is likely to come he says I think the chance of a 10% correction is highly likely sometime between now and the election what’s your take you know David I I mean I am bearish but I think that’s kind of a vague way that’s fairly you know how many months away and there may be a 10% correction I don’t know if that’s a market forecast I’m from my friend I don’t know the gentleman so I don’t want to pick on him or anything he might phenomenal my feeling about the market is this if you’re if you’re interested in the next few weeks or few months I think that’s anyone’s guess I think you know flip a coin do what you want if you want to start talking about multi- years out and Resort back to us what a stock market ultimately is which is where you buy part ownerships of businesses and those businesses will mostly do well or not so well depending on economies then I would say I’d be quite bearish because I think things are going to get a lot worse economically socially and politically so I’m not so concerned about the next 10% or 10 weeks I’m more concerned about the 30 to 50% over the next three to five years I do want to get your thoughts on the socioeconomic landscape of America but just focusing on the markets for now uh okay so the markets are interesting in your many decades of participating in the markets as an investor and Speculator and analyst have you ever witnessed anything like this and by this I mean specifically just a few stocks pulling up the entire index the tech sector has been the only sector outperforming the S&P 500 this year out of the 10 sectors of the S&P and within that Tech sector it’s only really just been a few names pulling up that sector as well it’s just a very concentrated Market have you seen anything like this uh David you make a very good point I probably one of the primary reasons to be at least concerned if not outright bear is that the the lack of of following and Improvement as those few stocks went up eight to nine out of 10 times Pro Troublesome down the road but I’ll tell you what I’ve seen that I’ve never seen before in my 40 years given where market prices are where valuations are and giving what the mood of the market is the complacency among investors and the so-called professional public with all the fundamental economic and social factors that one could argue that are as much bearish as they can make an argument of bullish the fact that there’s such a complacency and not a real fear at all that I see at all even at these high valuations suggest that what normally succeeds over time contrarianism is the thing to be and be contrary to the popular opinion now that this Market is going to just keep going up and up right is this reminiscent of 2000 for you well the only difference is between 87 and 2000 and 2008 there was the ability for the government to step in and bail out if we have a crisis we no longer have that availability because we became so indebted and we’re spending so much money each year more than we have we will not have the ability to Simply print five or 10 or 15 trillion whatever it takes to whatever ends up happening and have the market accept that as that’s a that’s a net positive that’s the big change now I don’t think the cards can be played and one of the big reasons is one of the five reasons of my build o is that political paralysis David here in the US I can address in the US Democrats and Republicans cannot go in a room and make any worthwhile legislation anymore and on top of that they each have a faction in their party that wants to move more extreme away from their Center so I don’t believe if and when the next Crisis comes that there’s the political will to fix it this time okay uh what do you mean by this debt issue is going to prevent the government from bailing companies out I mean the comp what we saw last year was the uh Federal Reserve and the treasury bailing out a couple banks right um backstopping Bank losses following the collapse of Silicon Valley and a few others you don’t think that’s going to happen to a to the same extent as maybe 2008 so in the 40 plus years I’ve seen three major Financial crisises each at the time was perceived as a major crisis even though if you look at 1987 when the Dow was just a few thousand points you would say what what big deal was that but for that time that was a significant financial crisis same thing in 2000 and 2008 but each time the main thing that turned the the turnaround for the market was the FED acting in a much easier stance creating all sorts of additional money and of course debt creation the governments can no longer do that without fear because people have come to the conclusion that we’re now getting to the point we may not even be able to make our interest payments so that Cod that was readily available in those last prices I don’t believe is going to be readily available for the next one I want to come back to what you said about political turmoil this is a ray diio recently wrote a a gigantic article for Time Magazine it’s a 50-minute read I’ll put the link down below for anyone who wants to check it out this was released uh June 25th 2024 now he says and I’ll just read the first paragraph and we can comment on this I believe we now have to face the fact that fighting for democracy as we know it without or sorry with thoughtful disagreement ment and compromises governed by rule of law is unlikely to work people like me who had a long shot hope for the emergence of a middle that fights against the extremists to bring the country together and make fin uh major reforms to improve the system must recognize that the differences are becoming too irreconcilable for this to happen and then he goes on to basically said he wrote an article uh few months prior to this outlining basically why there’s a 30% chance of a civil war anyway before we go further I like to just comment on what I just read sure so as we’ve destroyed the middle class for decades of Mis mismanagement we’ve also have basically destroyed the middle ground in the United States people are at one extreme or another and those who may remain somewhere in the FI middle feel helpless and actually fearful to speak up against one extreme or the other and quite frankly no matter what happens the election now whether Biden stays whether they replace him whether somehow he or whoever replace him wins or Trump wins about half the country is going to be pretty well mad the day after the election I don’t think the election is going to solve anything and what I think Ray Delio is getting at is is that because of that and this Division and we don’t have to go far we just have to turn on the Nightly News Dave and look what’s happening in Europe and how that breakup is occurring many people feel both Canada and the United States is its next stop so I think he makes a very good point I don’t like talking about silver unrest I don’t want to wish it to so I can point to everybody to see I was right yeah I do think it’s more likely now than in any other previous time in the stock market what has been one of the reasons for this widening divide political divide over the last couple of decades I’m going to give you two answers I’m going to give you the secular answer and then I’m going to give you the Peter grandage answer sure the secular answer has been a division of of income it has been realistically where a small percentage of people have become increasingly wealthy while the bulk of the people have struggled due to enormous things that we can speak ours about that’s the secular answer the Peter grandit answer is I believe the more we moved away from the moral compass that a lot of different religions respect I’m not talking about any other one and we lived within a means that worked for this country for a couple hundred years a moral is basically gone and it’s spun out of control and to me that’s when we strip we could talk about whatever subject you want if we wanted to get down to the rarest reason that’s what I believe we would find we’ve lost our ways as a society in the simplest most commonality where people shared where it didn’t matter really what fate you were from but you had a common respect and dignity and all that kind of stuff and that’s been dissipated if not taken out of the equation and many areas of the world not just here in the United States Delio lists a multi-stage cycle that happens in this changing uh order of things if you want to call it that he says watch populism and polarization as markers the more that populism and polarization exist the further along a nation is in what he calls stage five and the closer it is to civil war and revolution in stage five moderates become the minority in stage six they cease to exist in stage five class Warfare intensifies that is because as a rule I uh as a rule during times of increased hardship and conflict there is an increased inclination to look at people in stereotypical ways as members of one or more classes so lots to impact there uh do you agree first and foremost that popularism popularism and polarization usually will lead to more unrest and is that happening now I very much look forward to reading this article because it sounds like from what little you have read a lot of it is similar thinking on mind you know it there’s a saying I like to say to people privately and I’ll share it with you publicly I pray for I hope for the best but I’m praying to prepare for the worst and that’s the reason of the building of the Ark and and I think caution and Extreme Caution for a lot of people is very important and that’s why I just want to fall back David on this I I don’t want to take you away from you wanted to go but it’s that complacency now think about what you just talked about I think there’s a lot of realistic uh support to what you just read I really do uh but if we would go out now and have a poll anywhere at least in the United States among the financial service industry and listen to those so-called professional speaking I doubt we would have heard any one of them or a very small minority Express anything similar to what Ray dalel just spoke about now look where Ray doio is and look where some of those other people are I think you have to at least to respect what he’s saying and try to justify how he may be wrong I don’t heard anything yet that you said there that I greatly disagree with what can we do about this okay by by do I mean from an Investor’s perspective but also a citizen perspective I I think the first thing we have to do is we fall back on how I live in our financial and Planning Group what’s left to what I do in business is is planning here in the US and that is I’ve had a model for over a decade almost actually 15 years that less is more I lived it myself David I I could conceivably have a bigger home I could have a more expensive car all those things is still to many people a way of life I think we have to recognize that past Generations yours families mine did with a lot less smaller dwellings not as big cars all that stuff but they still got through I think excess or or or living and trying to keep up as we like to say with the Joneses has led to a a lot of our issues that’s the first thing I think we could control ourselves the other thing is and and again this goes back to what maybe Separates Me From A lot of people because I wear my Catholic Christian faith on my sleeve I really believe we need to return to recognizing that there’s somebody far superior than us and they’re not running for president or they don’t run a big money management firm and those words and those teachings need to be brought back into line and understood and without it I think we’re just you know we’re a mess and we’re going to have much bigger problems down the road from an Investor’s perspective then what is in this financial Arc let me just remind you what makes up whyde the financial lock the third is a debt and deficits the second is a retirement and aging crisis the third is an immigration Invasion the fourth is the bricks and that’s a big story you’re going to be talking about in the fall days there going to be a lot of stuff coming out the bricks that’s going to shock Wall Street and then the fifth is the political paralysis now in my boat uh I think the important thing is is preservation of capital now outweighs capital appreciation means it’s okay you can still try to turn a dollar two or three but you need to focus more on protecting what you already have than trying to add to it I think the other thing is is that the ultimate crime in investing won’t be wrong it’s staying wrong and one of the things that I feel is because of this complacency everybody just assumes that what worked for the last 40 years is going to work for another 40 years and and I’m afraid that that’s going to be proven uh pretty wrong and so I think you have to be proactive now and not reactive and unfortunately complacency normally leads to having to react and when we have to react emotion gets involved and Dave I don’t care who you speak to whatever if they’re willing to admit about their past mistakes and they’ve actually made them I’ve made a lot of them biggest mistakes that I can recall people making were during highly stressful times and I don’t think people have recognized how difficult things may be and therefore suddenly will hit them and they will make decisions out of emotion when it comes to investing emotion is one of the poorest factors to incorporate into investing decisions talk about gold uh City Group forecast gold demand to rise analysts at US Bank City Group are forecasting that the demand for gold will rise in coming months pushing up prices they’re projecting uh prices to reach between 20 $700 and $3,000 per ounce by 2025 which is coming up uh Peter what’s your take on gold well I’ll I’ll stick to what I said when it was under 1300 I said we’re going to get to 2536 2536 isn’t that far away now it’s a couple hundred dollars from where we are today yes I think the more important thing about price is why has gold performance it has and why still have most investment advisors not embraced one of the three tier one investment you can have in the world people got plenty of stocks they got plenty of bonds but they have very very little physical gold in their portfolios yet it’s the only one of three tier one Investments you can make in the world I think the reason is and we’ll we’re going to see it and I’m you know I’ll come back and be the first to say I was wrong but I think we’re going to see a lot more advancement of the Brick Nations and where they’re going as these fall meetings come together and I think we’re going to get a real minimum hint of how go may play a role in whatever they’re planning from the monetary side of things do you think that that reason that you just stated was partly responsible for the uh rise and gold price this past year yeah David I believe it’s a single biggest reason I think there’s more but I think believe that’s a single and that’s the reason why they can’t take it back down Dave you know we as you and I speak here today we had another article again oh this the Chinese didn’t buy and they took the market down 30 something dollars they did that a month ago and is going higher than that in a couple days I believe the same will be the case here the physical ownership desire for gold uh is is surpassing the normal plays that are played in the paper market and the key part of that is because Go’s trading has moved away from the London New York environment and Asia and Shanghai and that has really changed the perception and the reality of how gold trades and I you know and and and let me add this because I used to get picked on because I never said the same positive things about Sila but right now silver has this good an argument in my book as gold does so I think both of them will continue to perform well and let’s remember this David despite what all these other people like you to think since the turn of this Millennium gold is outperformed stocks and bonds talking about since 2000 since 2000 and if you really want to go if you go back 50 years or so when gold started free trading it’s now outperformed bonds okay and yet if you talk to any so-called typical financial advisor and said I was thinking about gold as an investment or an income thing they would say you’re crazy use your own bonds but meanwhile it listen it’s always going to be the Rodney danger fi uh get no respect uh kind of investment but I would just tell you this I would not want to see most people that I meet from working class right up to the athletes I dealt with not having at least some gold in the portfolio let me tell you why I always tell them own some and hope it doesn’t go up and Dave they all say the same thing Mr granish why do you want me to buy something that’s not going to go up and my answer always is the same Dave because if it goes up a lot chances are what you own a lot is going to go down and I think gold minimally should be treated as an insurance policy and yet most people have no real Insurance on their portfolio not working out well do you think there was a paradigm shift in how people viewed gold this year I mean gold went up along with stocks went up along with Bitcoin it went up along with interest rates which historically the 10 year which historically has been inversely related to Gold it went up with the dollar right so it just went up with everything um is is something different now with the way gold is behaving it went up without getting that merited increase in chatter and talk and recommendations it’s still not most portfolios that are put out by the major brokerage firms have little or no gold ownership in it it’s gone up because people who know recognize on what’s happening with the bricks and again I’ll eat you know I’ll eat these words if we get through the fall and it’s not shown to be this but I think we’re going to realize that part of what’s Driven gold has been a movement that’s going to come out for these countries to trade among themselves and also others with some form of gold backing whatever they end up how they trade whether digitally or physically or a combination of both Peter if you were still to speculate which is to say um stepping away from the financial Arc for just a bit if you were to bet on something that has higher risk but perhaps even higher return pop uh potential what would that thing be sector asset class stock whatever whatever the case may be this is kind of silly for a guy who’s down seven figures in these things to tell you it’s the only thing that fits your answer and that’s mining shares and particularly in the Juniors because it’s very hard to find a sector as a whole right now that’s greatly undervalued and anywhere anywhere in the world at least how I look at it even mining shares the major producers have rallied since February the only the only sector that isn’t up are the companies that basically do The Grudge work and make the initial discoveries and things of that nature and the reason I only bring that up is if the world is going to need and grow because of AI it’s going to need tremendous more electricity EV all that stuff it’s going to need findings of new base Metals particularly and we have not spent any real money for a decade and a half to find these new big major deposits and the supply and demand scenario for these medals just get bullish and more bullish as each week goes by eventually somebody has to go out and find new Supply and it will be these type of Juniors that help lead that way that’s the only thing that really you can still argue about why they’re bullish because basically anybody that still own them can stand them including my wife what what do you and your wife think about uranium then the uh the metal has uh surpassed $100 at one point this year it’s now trading around 85 bucks a pound stabilizing around that area it’s it’s gone up tremendously over the last year as you know doubling in price since 2023 um walk us through the narrative behind uranium so my uranium friends are going to get upset because they know in January I bailed on them you know I was a big player in the uranium when it was around 20 and was buying things like camoo at 8 and when they got to 45 and 50 and got well over 100 that argument is still strong nuclear power must and I would underline must be part a significant part of governments to provide Power in the coming years and decades there’s no question about that the problem always falls back to why I originally just stuck with producers and not Juniors there’s only a small amount of producers the rest of people are all wannabes and that doesn’t mean not some of the wannabes are going to actually eventually someday turn into producers but they’re going to be few and far between and I just think that uh it’s it’s a a good part of those gains have made I think that market can still go up but I don’t think it’s cheap anymore and uh the the things that to me that like I said can only find cheap are the junior explorers that are looking for gold silver copper zinc but things of that nature you think gold is still cheap at nearly $2,400 an ounce let’s just I want to make the Juniors looking for them I understand and more B David I’m sorry to interrup you more base medals because that’s where the real need is going to be that’s why I sleep the easiest with copper even though I don’t think copper is going to go to eight anytime soon but I also think it’s just going to work its way higher because it has just a phenomenal supply versus demand scenario well copper has had a tremendous run this past year going up to $5 a pound but now then then it’s crashed all the way back to like uh 4.3 uh bit of an uptick now since the beginning of July or late June rather uh do you think copper has basically just been pushed up too high and now people are uh responding to uh that by selling and um you know selling pressure is higher than the buying pressure is that what’s happening right now well that was a big short squeeze yeah and that hindsight investing uh and but since that time let’s not forget it was just a few months back when we couldn’t get above four and a lot of the Bears we’re talking about 250 and three the bottom line is as we get into especially past this year into 2025 and 2026 the supply demand scenario turns such incredibly bullish and think about this Chile that just about every year or two used to open up a brand new copper mine hasn’t opened a real large copper mine in a dozen years the bottom line is this the supply demand scenario for All Metals that I look at is most favorable for copper so for me copper is going to remain an important investment vehicle particularly through the companies that produce it and explore for it well speaking of companies Peter how do you pick companies we don’t necessarily have to give names but I want to get your process what do you look for Dave my Pro poli’s down seven figures you sure you want me to tell people how to pick Juniors you know a wise man learns from others mistakes but uh you you full you’re full wisdom on the on the successes you’ve had as well so yeah so you know one of the ways I can answer that honorably which is the only way I like to answer especially for you because you’re you’re a hardworking young man thank I will just tell you that I learned again that management is the absolute key when it comes to Junior resource companies and proven past results of being able to do what most others can’t because the resource industry is failure is the norm every 10 companies that are out there all honorable all rolling up their sleeve all trying their hardest three or five years from now will come back one or two found developed sold or or brought into a new mind failure is the norm and because of that what usually separates it was management skills and so I think it has to be the first decision if you’re going to buy a junior going forward you have to believe that this management can separate itself from most others then I think the second most important thing now which used to be fourth to 5ifth 20 years ago is where they’re looking because the political economic and social unrest that’s now occurring in many parts of the world wasn’t happening 20 or 30 years ago you didn’t worry too much about where you were exploring and Mining but now you have to the miners told me that North America is the safest jurisdiction in the world to mine is that still the case Peter for me it is that’s the only place that I’m looking but that doesn’t mean that you can just go anywhere I wouldn’t want to do anything in California I still think you know there’s there’s some issues in other states that could be an issue but by and large when you look at a Providence like Quebec and Ontario where they’re just so proactive mining when you look at Arizona and Nevada again yeah I I feel more comfortable in North America right now than any other part of the world okay uh listen I’m not a geologist I think I speak for a lot of people when I say that I don’t know how to evaluate in your words how good management is right let’s suppose I go to a trade show and I stand at these one of these booths there’s like 100 booths everyone’s claiming to be the best management team in the world everyone’s claiming to be uh on top of the best deposit in the world what are some of the questions I should be asking to determine whether or not I should even look further so in all legal documents the financial service firm there’ll always be that something says in there past performance doesn’t guarantee future success when it comes to Juniors cross change it a little and say past performance is almost a certainty of future success people that time in and time out have been able to find develop self profitably or bring a mine into production and have done it more than once are more likely on average than the do it that somebody has been dated 30 or 40 years nice person speaks to you works hard but never managed to turn it and do something like that it is a real Difference Maker in the junior resource market and where it also is and so so critical now and again I overlooked it in a certain situation is in capital markets the people that know how to raise money at the right time recognize how to do it efficiently and spend it wisely you’re talking about you’re talking about asset allocation in the mining company talking about yeah the junior companies now how how successful they are the critical uh I’m not the originator of this and forgive me for not remembering who originally said it but somebody used to say at the mining shows a Junior resource companies a burning match and it always goes out so if you don’t have a book of matches if you only have one match you’re done and so again management and how they not only explore but how they’re able to handle their money and raise money are the absolute critical Natures can I give you an example you know I never please yeah go ahead it’s my largest portfolio I’m I’m down the most I’ve ever been down on any stock in my life okay but recently there was a change in management and the people that were there who never really ran public companies to the point of success of finding something selling it for a profit or I mean building a mind have been replaced by Two Gentlemen who combined with them have done done it five times correctly so in that state if you believed in the projects before and now you have the addition of proven management that might have not exist there before now that’s something even more attractive even if you were erroneous as I obviously was early on the name of the company’s Arizona medals just to be be the point but there is where management is going to make an absolute difference certainly for my money okay and just to disclose you’re currently invested in Arizona is that something I am I am I am I I’ll tell you what so you know so I said it publicly I don’t hold anything back I own a million Shar $357 I think the stock today is a dollar 48 so you can figure out how much I’m losing and how much my wife is not speaking to me about well okay look a lot of famous investors have held on to the losses Warren Buffett one famous example right why aren’t you selling because the project has always been great that’s never been in doubt in my mind I was an advocate and outspoken about the past management they left which didn’t hurt my feelings at all and they were replaced by absolute Major League starters so I went from a single a baseball minor league management team to two guys that can start in the major Leakes that to me in itself and reminding this David this is the worst Junior resource Market in my career Bar None there’s never been this discrepancy between the actual metal prices and the valuations that people were putting on these stocks anything close that it is now but at least now what I have going for me is I have the key factor to match my like my liking for the project proven management very successful proven Management in fact I want to finish off on the financial Arc that we started talking about earlier is there any stock sector from the S&P or NASDAQ whatever whatever index you you follow that could qualify to be in this Arc besides besides the junior minor that we just talked about yeah so this is what I tell people I don’t want to own any general us Equity is not related to Natural Resources but what I tell people are if you do then you have to look at the ones that have greatly underperformed and that would be in the small cap sector and even the midcap sector if you are like me and you find that there’s certain types of companies that are not traded in the US but do similar business elsewhere then you can look overseas and merging markets in that General me the safest is an equity index annuity and and I’m not here to give this is not investment advice but something where I can be assured of upside but not losing principle is something I think a lot of people especially those in latty years that don’t have the opportunity to make up if there are losses should look to protect and that falls into what I said before about preserving what you have versus trying to gamble on bigger capital appreciation can I add one thing can I add one thing yeah please there are two sectors if I was your age and as handsome as you are I would tell you that things related to power the enormous amount of we just had Congressional hearings today it won’t make a lot of news but it was an amazing watching Democrats and Republicans say the same thing at a committee normally they’re up against each other and they were all speaking about how much more power just here in the United States we’re going to need in the next 5 to 10 years to meet the needs of what’s happening in the AI sector and all talked about how we don’t presently have it we’re going to have all these brown outs and blackouts it’s clear to me that that’s not just going to be in the United States so I think anybody that’s involved in the business of providing power the pots the the Machinery all of that related to that is probably a growth section the other area unfortunately is we we’re going to have to find ways to produce more food uh and more efficiently because a lot of the world is losing the ability to eat well and and serve its population and so forth so anything in my view that would help increase the ability for food to grow or what have you I think is a sector and of course anything medical because people are willing to pay just about anything to keep alive so I still think there’s places out there but at this point in time I don’t think there’s a lot of reasons to take a lot of risk in most of these sectors how do you feel about bonds then right now I still don’t believe we should own corporate bonds even though I believe interest rates peaked for the cycle I actually think the next move on interest rates is going to be lower I think we’re going to see two to three fed Cuts between possibly as early September but no later than right after the election and clearly into 2025 because we’re going to see a tremendous drop off in the economy the the the peeling off of the fakeness we’ve seen it now come out in the employment numbers I mean think about it they came out with the employment number last Friday Friday before and they had to change by a 100,000 David they lowered a how could you be possibly how could the if the Federal Reserve was truly using these numbers at face value how could they be making planning monetary policy when the people who provide you the employment numbers have such great discrepancies month after month after month and I think that that bloom is off I don’t think I think we’re going to see the real numbers come out in the coming months and they’re not going to be good just another stat to kind of illustrate your point uh the number of people holding multiple jobs um is now a record high I can’t remember the number exactly it’s it’s it’s a significant number right and there’s different arguments to this one could argue that this is not great if you need a whole multiple jobs it’s it’s not it’s because you need to right the other argument I’ve heard is that well people who hold multiple jobs they’re running gigs they’re you know doing things they freelancing on the side those people generally are doing so because they have a higher income to begin with uh that that’s an interesting take from some stats that an economist told me well anyway what’s your take I would just say to you that that’s why there’s such a discrepancy from the monthly employment numbers and the household survey because in the monthly BLS which really should just be called BS if you work in three different jobs they’ll count you as three different employed people even though it’s one person as you said working three jobs in the household survey that would be just counted as one person working three jobs yeah uh the the the the turn down in the economy will also because of the political ramifications what I think a certain party who’s hoping that someone replaces the person that’s in charge now thinks once that person gets in things are going to just revert back to how they used to be may have some momentarily uh excitement but within a few months they’re going to realize that as much as the people battled him before they’re going to battle him even more going forward so as we get into 2025 I don’t see any political Harmony be increased in fact I see more disharmony if possible in 2025 than we even had here in 2024 I I was ask talking to the chief Economist of the labor department um former Chief Economist and she said that uh when it comes to evaluating the health of the labor market often times they resorted to using IRS data that was more accurate than BLS data so uh we don’t have access to tax records unfortunately on a nation scale but that that would be something interesting to look at okay uh finally Peter any any thoughts on the election before we close off uh I was looking at the betting uh numbers on the betting markets it’s currently priced in today as we speak 61% chance of a trump Victory uh Biden trailing at 177% however there’s only about a 40% chance of Biden stepping out of the race uh in other words Democrats still favor currently Biden as their front runner and there’s been talks of uh people pushing him out but he’s adamant of staying in the race what’s your overall assessment of the situation following the debate so late last year certainly in my New Year’s forecast my comment was Biden will not be the on the election ballot come election day I I still believe that obviously now some people have more reason believe that’s the possibility the problem I had with that was at the time which may not be the answer now is I said the person that would replace them if that name was said it’ be the two worst words we could ever hear and that was President Harris I do believe that we’re going to likely see despite as you and I talk today uh within a few days to no more than a week or so we will learn that Biden will for whatever how they plan how to exit will suddenly stop running and then they’ll have an open convention uh whatever transpires even if it is Biden and even if somehow Biden won which I don’t think is very likely uh as I told you before the dis Harmony and as that Ray Dio reported the separation of and with no real middle ground or lack of true Independence especially if they’re willing to speak up uh is a real real negative and and what isn’t talked about and I think it’s going to play a role especially if there is a change from the Democratic party how will that third party candidate Kennedy play a role in that people are not talking about that but I can tell you this uh he could be a spoiler for either side and so this political disharmony is not going to go away and it’s it’s an amazing thing that the politics and geopolitics how few people in the financial service industry pay any attention to it wait minute you said Biden if he does step out are you are you are you saying he’s going to step out on his own or he’s gonna be forced out by the Democrats well he’s never gonna say he was forced out I mean that’s what he’s Bing today about uh I think probably what’s not being spoken about too is the concern is his son who’s already been found guilty of one made of significant crime has a case in September and if I was him I would want to make sure that my deal whoever I arrange is is going to kind of take the place is going to make sure that they step up or before January 20th comes that my son will be pardon I mean don’t people say h that’ll never happen it’ll happen but uh I mean it it it’s it’s a the political I’ll close this way for you show the the weight of the politics on what’s Happening is not being carefully analyzed and considered in the people’s Investments right now it’s an thought and what’s transpiring this and the separation and the political paralysis not just here but in other places in the world particularly in Europe I’ll close on this and maybe it’s something to talk that if you have me on again I believe that we’re seeing the beginning of the end of the European Union and uh that is also going to open up uh a whole can of worms on the geopolitical fronts but that’s probably too much we’ve already talked about today Dave okay uh well wait a minute you can’t you can’t hit on that and expect me to follow up we can talk more about this issue in depth next time uh but I just want to know what you mean by that what do you mean the dis yeah so think about some of the key countries that are there now the France thing has just really blown everybody’s mind the United Kingdom no one imagined uh what is transpiring there with the labor dep labor taking over Ireland is kicking up and really kicking up over the immigration and all and I think the countries are going to become more focused nationalism again and point that the the European Union has hurt them not helped them and the powers of be that used to basically control them out of Germany don’t exist anymore so that that’s a story for another day and they also have to be concerned about what’s going to happen with the bricks and let me just go back to that the close I believe the bricks and the formation of the bricks and I’ve said this to you for a year now in the next three to five years probably shorter than later what they will do to World Trade will have the same impact that the industrial revolution had so the most important thing we should be talking about outside of our own place is the bricks and we’re going to hear more about that in the fall that’s going to become a a talked about topic and you know just as today as you and I go off pres the India’s prime minister and and Russia’s leader are together happy I mean it’s it’s these are things that are just not being considered people on the geopolitical front that need to be but I’ve already spoken too much Dave no I don’t I don’t think you’ve ever spoken too much on the show but I do appreciate cander yeah you’re ref just to give some color to the audience you’re referencing um India’s uh visit uh India prime minister’s visit modi’s visit to to Moscow it’s happening as we speak today and then earlier you’re referencing the French election when the uh left Alliance uh surprisingly won the election okay but yeah more to discuss next time for sure thank you very much today Peter where can we follow you follow your work I I’ve learned to say x now not Twitter but I mostly communicate on X I I do have a Blog Peter gr. comom and I and I and I do have a YouTube channel and David I’ll just say this again the continuing watching of your intelligence and what you’ve learned in the few years from the days of Co and working out of your apartment there in Montreal is just amazing I really really enjoy having an exchange with you whether you never come back again trust me this was one of the more enjoyable times I’ve had an long time having this discussion well I appreciate it that’s very kind of you I learn from speaking to people like you every day so that’s you’re the source people like you are the source of my growth so thank you very much for coming on the show we’ll definitely have you back soon more to discuss we’ll talk more about the EU and your thoughts on the bricks next time so stay tuned for that thank you very much we’ll speak soon thank you God bless and thank you for watching don’t forget to like And subscribe

Peter Grandich, Founder of Peter Grandich & Co., discusses his outlook on markets, political tensions in the U.S., commodities, and mining stocks.

Watch Peter’s last interview with me: https://youtu.be/-l0KZwwiFRg?si=obCO-SSZKPJW7rVb
Ray Dalio’s “The Coming Great Conflict”: https://time.com/6991271/civil-war-conflict-ray-dalio/

*This video was recorded on July 8, 2024

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0:00 – Intro
1:50 – Market correction outlook
4:50 – Government bail outs
7:07 – Ray Dalio’s “The Coming Great Conflict”
14:11 – ‘Financial ark’
15:58 – Gold outlook
20:34 – Mining companies
22:05 – Uranium
24:10 – Copper
27:30 – How to pick junior miners
34:35 – Bonds and the economy
38:00 – Presidential election
41:27 – Dissolution of EU?

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