Hey folks. Among my friend group I'm known as the investor/trader guy.
They've always known this and one or two of them would occasionally approach me to discuss investing or trading. This would happen maybe once every 5 or 6 months.
Over the last couple of weeks I had the most amount of people approaching me asking about trading stocks and options in a very long time. I've been trading for over 12 years and it's never been a good sign when a large number of folks who are normally not at all interested in the stock market, suddenly become interested.
This is by no means the holy grail of anything. But I've noticed that this kind of behavior usually comes in late in a cycle and I've tended to see markets take a dump on everyone just a few months after a lot of newbies get into the market.
There was this story about Joe Kennedy, the father of JFK. He was a big investor in the 20s. He was getting his shoes shined sometime in 1929 and when the shoeshine boy gave him stock advice he immediately went and sold everything. Markets crashed that same year.
I remember another anecdote from a WSB degen here sometime in 2021. He said his uber driver had his trading app open throughout the ride and was trading options.
Usually we're closer to the end when you hear a lot of these anecdotes piling up. So I'm interested if anyone else had this same experience lately in maybe the last month or so.
Many of my friends are suddenly interested in trading ( which makes me worried )
byu/CaspeanSea inwallstreetbets
Posted by CaspeanSea
14 Comments
Market always go up,
sometime it go down
but in the end it will always go up
Yes one friend randomly started talking about call options
I keep my mouth shut about trading and investing with the people in my life. In this day with so much information at our fingerprints, they can do their own research and piss away their money all on their own.
But if they insist upon it, then I just tell them to read “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing” If they can’t be even bothered to do that then so be it
Nobody wants to work. Let the market teach them a lesson.
More loss porn for us to enjoy. I say let them.
I advise you to not recommend or tell them anything specific but at most explain how things work in general and how they can educate themselves and do their own research.
Once you tell them what positions you hold or what they could or even should invest in you dig your own grave and run the risk of being blamed if things don’t work out the way they want…
I have also had this experience from past market booms. I’d say we have 6-9 months left of rally from here.
This is how i predict crypto crashes.
There’s a sir John Templeton quote, “markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria” when people begin piling in and say things like “this time is different” and basic fundamentals are ignored (think valuations for companies based on clicks in the early 2000’s) there will be a reckoning and return to normalcy
lol watch friends refuse to sell after they make money following your trades. Watch them lose money when it tanks after the run. Watch them then either give up trading or “diamond hands” while holding back tears in their eyes.
Repeat
Hey thats could be the start of a beautiful ponzi scheme with you on top. Or the sign we reached the top. Ones a joke one the truth. Find out for yourself
Everything I hear about the shoeshine boy, I know we’re in the middle of a bull market that will persist for years. Bull markets implode when people are irrationally bullish, not cautious. Cautious buyers aren’t overpaying
If you’ve even glanced at a stock market channel in the last couple of years it’s “record high” after “record high”.
People have been squeezed by inflation while watching others surf the bull market wave. IMO You would have to be dumb or lazy not to realize you are missing out on a great wealth generation tool.
I’m not too concerned, it’s not full euphoria mode yet, if it was there wouldn’t be $6 Trillion sitting in money markets. Lots of folks are still in denial that it can continue in the first place. Fear levels are high.
We could be mid cycle, with a long way to go yet.
Calling the top? Positions or ban!