I have no idea why people keeping parroting that the market won't crash this year, because it's an election year. The last two major crashes had started before the elections in 2000 and 2008.
In 2000, the market hit ATH in March. It dropped, and then climbed back up, but had a another significant drop of around 20% between the beginning of Sept and mid Oct. It recovered a bit before the election, but continued to drop after.
ATH wasn't reached again until 2007. Another ATH was hit in Oct. Then the market declined from there. It had dropped 20% from ATH by Sept of 2008. Then it plummeted another 30% in a little over 2 weeks. It chopped until the end of the year, and then dropped even more.
So, no… just because it's an election year doesn't mean that the market can't begin a crash beforehand.
The US is about to ramp up debt issuance. In short, this drains market liquidity. The same thing happened last year at this time, and the market dropped from Aug through Oct and will most likely happen again.
Personally, I think we'll see a rate cut in Sept, followed by a dead cat bounce through the end of the year. We'll see. Either way… buckle buckaroo!
Where did the myth that the market won't crash during an election year come from?
byu/kazkeb inwallstreetbets
Posted by kazkeb
23 Comments
Full years was it up or down
[https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns](https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns)
It’s usually because the party in power doesn’t want things to get shitty, and they do have things they can do to edge the economy, or at least the perception of the economy, one way or the other. Now they DGAF as it is one purple, globalist party in command.
Will be interesting
Preemptive rate cut (ie not cutting because of shit being broken), Trump election (very favorable for corporate taxes) will send this to new ATH. So no dumps this year.
history is where it came from
What was happening and happened in 08 before and after Obama got elected?
If this is business plot 2 the electric boogaloo, I would expect a drop in October to seal the deal for Trump, but dems shitting bed so bad we might get a landslide leads to lower taxes on the rich rally.
Election years are volatile. But wont crash. If it crashed 20% in one month it will moon 30% in the next.
I just bought two packs of Newports for $15. Deflation is here and the economy is slowing much faster than people think.
it comes from WSB. i saw a post about it 6 months ago….so it s safe source. Anyway…Biden sign 500pound bomb delivery to resume so just buy was stocks ITA PPA or their AI providers 😉
This is exactly why the market probably will crash this year. Also because I bought LEAPS at the top.
YO MAW!
Market crashed in 2008
Prob from the same people who keep pumping meme stocks here to dump them on regards.
Every time someone says “no crash on election year” someone brings up ’00 and ’08. Doesn’t stick because you underestimate how delicious crayons are.
lol oh let’s see your position or omg stfu cause no one cares you pussy.
Is that you Nancy? What do you know!!! CALLS or PUTS Nancy?!?!!
The fuck kind of copium do y’all bears be on bro
Bro. This time is different
Common sense
That’s where it came from Elections are a joke It’s rigged A bunch of well timed bullshit Is your question even real? Lol
believing comments and rumors on WSB is like taking medical advice from your local crackhead
I can’t hear your ber propaganda over the brrrr of my calls. 😌