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    CVNA – It’s a short. Don’t act like I never told ya.

    Hello folks,

    I'll be quick. Carvana (CVNA) is up 288% in the past 12 months. That's more than Nvidia (NVDA) that all of you jerk off too, but less than Abercrombie (ANF) which I'm also shorting by the way (you can read an update in my WSB post from a few weeks back).

    Used cars, generic clothes, then AI revolution

    Back to Carvana. Last earnings, there's been numerous posts on WSB, stating how CVNA's profit margins smell like fraud because Carvana claims they make $5000+ per car, while pretty much any other used car seller in the country ain't able to do the same. (WSB post for reference from a dude claiming to have worked in auto sales for years: I’M CALLING BS (Carvana))

    Putting fraud and Carvana in the same sentence, should not come off as a wild dream, given that the father, Ernest Garcia II, of the current Carvana CEO, Ernest Garcia III, pled guilty to a felony bank fraud charge back in the 90s. It's literally one of the first things that pop up once you google his name.

    In the past month, CVNA went up 40% from $100 to $140, for no apparent reason. Meanwhile father Garcia continuously sold his CVNA position. He held 1,177,500 shares on 2024/17/06, and was down to 187,500 shares on 7/09/2024. That's 84% of his CVNA position sold off in the past 3 weeks. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/insiders/garcia-ernest-c-ii-30875

    Carvana as company still has negative equity (meaning the amount it owes to its lenders is higher than all of its assets), and reported $28m in profits on $3.06b of revenue (0.91% net profit margin).

    Not to mention that selling used cars is not a proprietary business, and can be easily replicated by numerous other Carvana copy cats and dealerships. Garcia Senior probably understands this too, hence why he's selling his CVNA shares and I'll join too by first borrowing CVNA shares (cause I don't have any) and then selling it into the open market just like him.

    Basically PTON at $150, SNAP at $80 and SHOP at $160 story but for used cars.

    Thank you for reading.

    CVNA – It's a short. Don't act like I never told ya.
    byu/SilbergleitJunior inwallstreetbets



    Posted by SilbergleitJunior

    View 35 Comments

    35 Comments

    2. pareofdocks on

      I agree and am interested in shorting Carvana but it’s unshortable until a catalyst finally verifies this thesis. This thesis was true when it was at $40 per share, $80 per share, when it spiked to $120 per share after last earnings, and now at $142 per share. People have been shorting it since much lower prices and are now getting squeezed. You might be right but it might only go down after this ultra bullish market first squeezes it to $250 per share. Shorting “overvalued” companies simply because they seem overvalued has been the doom for many people in the past, so be patient and wait. If you miss it, then oh well, move on.

    3. PaleontologistDeep80 on

      Why did you switch your date formats ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)Also I would rather time the reversal before going short unless you think there is a catalyst. This time last year it was like double the price and may continue to inch higher.

    4. artemiusgreat on

      Everything you said makes perfect sense. This is why it will go to the moon, on average, the market is highly regarded…

      At least until standard September sell-off.

    5. Fetlocks_Glistening on

      Wait, CVNA and CFNM are different things? Have I been doing it wrong??

    6. Jeffinslaw on

      I want to go puts for their upcoming earnings but I’m sure they’ll moon. Didn’t they have a huge position in CHWY that helped boost them last earnings? That thing mooned thanks to DFV so that should only further bolster their “earnings.”

    9. Left-Slice9456 on

      When Carvana buys a vehicle they may be offering a lot less after the inspection. They go and pick it up so there is a convenience factor. The seller says fuck it and takes the money.

      There may be some other investigations brewing with some shenanigans along these lines.

      Interesting read though. they seem super sketch and something going on to sell off all those stocks

    11. Reparteey on

      Puts for earnings way too expensive right now

      so would be hard to make money without a $20 move

    12. EducationalHawk8607 on

      Anyone who has ever sold a car to carvana means there’s no shot they’re making 5k per vehicle. What an outrageous lie.

    14. liteagilid on

      Put spreads are pretty cheap bc the one that is way the fuck out of the money is still pricy as hell

    16. RonaSeason1 on

      Will only be a shortable stock as soon as they are exposed to fluffing their earnings

    17. noonmoon66 on

      I’ve been buying cvna puts since February…this mf goes up every earning. I’m down 80% ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)

      Exp Jan 2025 tho.

      But you what fk cvna and I will avg down

    18. therobshow on

      Anyone know what the easiest app to use to be able to short this is? Fucking robinhood won’t let me buy options

    19. Tastyfishsticks on

      I agree with everything you wrote and I still don’t believe the short will work.

    20. BullitshAndDyslecxi on

      Sorry but this is gonna be like all the other great ones: It’s gonna keep going straight up until one morning when the CEO’s secretary utters the words: “He said he would be out of the country without phone access.” to the FBI agents ransacking the office. Difficult to make money in these cases.

    24. Byaka23 on

      The problem is that a lot of people and institutions feel the same way. Short interest is high – 23%. This is why even tho it’s a piece of shit company, shorts have consistently been getting squeezed. But I agree, it’ll eventually crash and it’ll be spectacular. I think buying a long-term put debit spread is the way to do it.

    28. samuelsfx on

      CVNA just got upgraded to price target 150 by analyst. As shady as it is, if you guys want to short better limit order above 150 because you will get squeezed probably at 160

    29. King33dorah on

      Everyone I know that used carvana to sell a car got top dollar and the cars all had hidden issues but the “inspector” picking up the vehicles didnt look at shit.

    32. fancymanofcorn12 on

      I want to see some positions, this has been on peoples radars for a while now and every time someone claims it’s time to short it just pumps instead. A track history and seeing positions would be the most convincing argument one could make at this moment

    33. elpollobroco on

      Hey I got a great idea fellow regards, let’s short a stock that’s outperformed nvda this year

    34. wykav on

      I had PUTs on it last time it was up to ~$135 and sold at ~125 because I thought it was gonna ramp back up. I took my profits and waited to see what happens. Lo and behold, it is back to 140s. Considering more PUTs but Analysts have it at a Stong Buy. I guess they think the fraud will be successful? I have no idea …

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