What NVDA will do is what it always does

tl;dr – NVDA approx. $135 mid-August. $150 day after earnings. $160 to $170 in the two weeks after.

Preface: I've been drinking. I know it's early, but what a crap week. So, I might have to come back and fix stuff later.

I keep responding to comments asking what to do with the NVDA calls they are holding. I told people not to buy shorter dated calls until EOD today or next Monday at the earliest. It's becoming repetitive since I've been saying the same thing for weeks (bored losers can check comment history) – so, I thought i would just create a post they could refer to:

For the past 5? earnings cycles, NVDA follows essentially the same pattern:

1. It beats earnings

2. In the AH, it dips for about 5 minutes, then it starts to moon

3. The next day it opens higher and usually runs up quite a bit more

4. For the following two weeks or so, analysts raise price targets, and the stock slowly works its way to the high average of the new target price

5. Once it gets to that higher end, it proceeds to take a dump to a little higher than where it traded a few days after earnings.

6. It then churns around for about a month.

7. Approx 30 days from earnings, it starts a slow grind to just beneath the previous all-time high.

8. Reports, beats, and so on.

Positions: With NVDA, I buy somewhat longer dated calls with an ITM strike that gives me a 60-70 delta and then sell shorter dated calls against that position (essentially a PMCC).

Most recent position: (will post screens in first three comments because no idea how to add 3 pics to this post)

Bought NVDA Calls JAN 17 25 $120 x30 – $63,020.31 – on June 12th

Sold NVIDIA JUL 19 24 $141 x30 +$13,209.32 – on June 17th when it was trading high 130s or so

I ended up closing out the calls I bought for around $500 – NVDA JUL 19 24 $141 x30 -$570.81 – July 15th

Disclaimer – if you take advice from a drunken gambler, you deserve to live at the Wendy's dumpster, you filthy animal.