They set it to the neutral rate, J pow thinks thats 2.5-2.8%
NotDogsInTrenchcoat on
CME Group currently predicts 400-425 by July 2025.
joholla8 on
It will settle out at 4.25
Big-Leadership1001 on
Lowered rates don’t cause a crash, correlation isn’t causation. In fact, lowered rates help banks survive better which is why the bailout plans lowered rates to 0% and held them there while also enacting QE (which provides an effective rate reduction as well) , and contributed to bank failures that started happening after the 0% bailout situation was put on pause to try and address inflation.
Lowering rates MIGHT be a sign of ore bank failures to come – an attempt to help them. It might not be, though to be honest the economy needs 4-5% for years to let air out of the housing bubble specifically so that there isn’t a massive crash because prices can’t just keep inflating the way they were for so long without any consequences and corporations can’t buy all the real estate to make up for fewer people with sufficient money.
We will see. If they lower rates, time will tell us better than the words of any official. If the fed is being responsible, they know to keep rates high enough to slow spending and reduce costs of loans, simultaneously tackling inflation climbs while also deflating bubbles… but not overdoing it so high or for so long that they create deeper recession through monetary policy. It’s a balancing act.
Zachincool on
-2%
notyourregularninja on
Do you know the debt of a company like apple?? Approximately 300 billion dollars and they have interest rates renegotiated every 3-5 years by their creditors – so they end up paying around 15 billion usd in interest currently @5% interest rate. A 1 percent reduction is 20% of 15 billion – 3 billion dollars of pure savings. And thats just Apple.
dumbasfuck6969 on
look up the dot plot. these guys are very transparent about where they think things are going.
wasifaiboply on
25bps in September and that will be it. Any projection further out than that has too much data to contend with that’s going to swing the odds massively over time through the end of 2024 and into 2025.
Additionally, if we go back to 2% rates any time soon you better start buying water, non-perishable food and ammo because shit is going to get real weird real fast.
Going anywhere close to ZIRP again would effectively mean we are in the midst of The Great Depression 2.0 and inflation is going to be allowed to eat all of us alive.
HerezahTip on
0% FREE MONAYYYYY
Disastrous_Equal8589 on
Powell will cut 2 or 3 times and then pause. Where it ends up going to depends on what happens to the economy
InterstellarReddit on
OP lacks critical thinking. The housing crisis was rooted before 2007-2008.
Subprime lending began a few years earlier? Maybe 2001?
Anyways, lowering the rates did not cause the housing crisis. It just happened to unravel during 2007-2008 and the fed saw it coming and tried to slow it down.
Visual_Comfort_6011 on
Very simple, to whatever the Federal Reserve wants or think it is appropriate at the time. But remember, they are just human and can err like anyone else.
Pin_ups on
Should’ve been at 10% so fuckers could stop borrowing like a hooker on shit street.
first_time_internet on
Stocks will go up
Silvatungdevil on
You may not be aware but before the housing crash the Federal Reserve raised rates at every meeting. I believe they raised rates 17 times. They caused the housing crisis by crushing everyone with an adjustable rate mortgage.
Captain_Ahab_Ceely on
-10%. Stock up on ammo.
Elegant-Cockroach528 on
Markets are pricing in 2 quarter point cuts this year with very high probability, but it doesn’t really matter. A bigger concern is the $65bl in QT (fed balance sheet shrinking) a month.
Even bigger risk this year is Powell has been trying to run the government with short term T bills, most has been bought by money market funds, but it’s not clear that that money will keep up with the rest of the years supply. If Powell has to go to longer term notes and bonds then the will most certainly end this stock market melt up.
RaidenMonster on
I got a refi coming up in March. If they’d like to drop that shit to 0%for a couple week, that’s cool with me…
21 Comments
They set it to the neutral rate, J pow thinks thats 2.5-2.8%
CME Group currently predicts 400-425 by July 2025.
It will settle out at 4.25
Lowered rates don’t cause a crash, correlation isn’t causation. In fact, lowered rates help banks survive better which is why the bailout plans lowered rates to 0% and held them there while also enacting QE (which provides an effective rate reduction as well) , and contributed to bank failures that started happening after the 0% bailout situation was put on pause to try and address inflation.
Lowering rates MIGHT be a sign of ore bank failures to come – an attempt to help them. It might not be, though to be honest the economy needs 4-5% for years to let air out of the housing bubble specifically so that there isn’t a massive crash because prices can’t just keep inflating the way they were for so long without any consequences and corporations can’t buy all the real estate to make up for fewer people with sufficient money.
We will see. If they lower rates, time will tell us better than the words of any official. If the fed is being responsible, they know to keep rates high enough to slow spending and reduce costs of loans, simultaneously tackling inflation climbs while also deflating bubbles… but not overdoing it so high or for so long that they create deeper recession through monetary policy. It’s a balancing act.
-2%
Do you know the debt of a company like apple?? Approximately 300 billion dollars and they have interest rates renegotiated every 3-5 years by their creditors – so they end up paying around 15 billion usd in interest currently @5% interest rate. A 1 percent reduction is 20% of 15 billion – 3 billion dollars of pure savings. And thats just Apple.
look up the dot plot. these guys are very transparent about where they think things are going.
25bps in September and that will be it. Any projection further out than that has too much data to contend with that’s going to swing the odds massively over time through the end of 2024 and into 2025.
Additionally, if we go back to 2% rates any time soon you better start buying water, non-perishable food and ammo because shit is going to get real weird real fast.
Going anywhere close to ZIRP again would effectively mean we are in the midst of The Great Depression 2.0 and inflation is going to be allowed to eat all of us alive.
0% FREE MONAYYYYY
Powell will cut 2 or 3 times and then pause. Where it ends up going to depends on what happens to the economy
OP lacks critical thinking. The housing crisis was rooted before 2007-2008.
Subprime lending began a few years earlier? Maybe 2001?
Anyways, lowering the rates did not cause the housing crisis. It just happened to unravel during 2007-2008 and the fed saw it coming and tried to slow it down.
Very simple, to whatever the Federal Reserve wants or think it is appropriate at the time. But remember, they are just human and can err like anyone else.
Should’ve been at 10% so fuckers could stop borrowing like a hooker on shit street.
Stocks will go up
You may not be aware but before the housing crash the Federal Reserve raised rates at every meeting. I believe they raised rates 17 times. They caused the housing crisis by crushing everyone with an adjustable rate mortgage.
-10%. Stock up on ammo.
Markets are pricing in 2 quarter point cuts this year with very high probability, but it doesn’t really matter. A bigger concern is the $65bl in QT (fed balance sheet shrinking) a month.
Even bigger risk this year is Powell has been trying to run the government with short term T bills, most has been bought by money market funds, but it’s not clear that that money will keep up with the rest of the years supply. If Powell has to go to longer term notes and bonds then the will most certainly end this stock market melt up.
I got a refi coming up in March. If they’d like to drop that shit to 0%for a couple week, that’s cool with me…
Honestly I’d be happy with 3-4%.
SPY will hit all time high
ZIRP
5.249999999…%