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    Why I’m playing TSLA puts today

    Guys, we have an insane earnings week and I just wanted to put in my two cents for TSLA today.

    Here’s what they're expecting:

    • Earnings per share: 62 cents expected

    • Revenue: $24.77 billion expected

    Just for comparison: A year ago, Tesla reported 91 cents of EPS and sales of $24.9 billion. First and formost, I'm getting a put spread. Not puts. IV is just way too high for just puts. Spreads reduce the IV and focuses more on the underlying. But why puts? The stock actually PUMPED hard last earnings. Well, let me explain.

    Lower sales volume and vehicle prices are behind the expected decline. Tesla delivered about 444,000 vehicles in the second quarter at an average realized price of $42,500. A year ago, the company shipped about 466,000 vehicles at an average price of about $44,000.

    There's really no indicators telling me that they're doing better as a constant decline in sales will probably continue well into 2025. Just look at the headlines. Musk's cybertruck is a complete failure. The tesla semi is a dud. The tesla roaster isn't out and will never be out. And his other projects? Hyperloop, solar panel shingles? All busts.

    Yea I'm expecting a >10% drop today. TSLA 7/26 240p is just a bit too expensive for an earning play, so this is why I'm getting the spread. Buying the 240p while selling the 225p (same exp) seems like a smart choice to me. I can grab the spread for 477 bucks right now at the time of writing. Meaning, if TSLA drops as much as I expect today, this spread should profit over 3x. Good luck!

    Why I'm playing TSLA puts today
    byu/GrowYourConscious inwallstreetbets



    Posted by GrowYourConscious

    View 43 Comments

    43 Comments

    2. Ryu6912 on

      When I bring the gigantic shrek dildo tomorrow morning I hope you’re prepared 😂

      edit: Looks like I will be inserting the gigantic shrek dildo tomorrow morning. WP BERS but your days are numbered.

    8. someadviceplease4me on

      Brother, I tried logic with TSLA and I got absolutely demolished. I’ve just started going with the inverse of my logic.

    10. FML712 on

      Looked like puts so I bought calls and your puts will print ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)

    11. Crafty_Run_893 on

      i have calls for this week and next, very optimistic ones that are down 30-50%, and thinking about something similar as a hedge.

    13. fenriswulfwsb on

      WSB so bullish at this point. Strongest indicator you are right. Too many bandwagoners buying calls after an 80% run in less than 6 months.

    14. Rav_3d on

      Your assumption that TSLA stock reacts in a logical manner to results is flawed. This stock trades on forward expectations of great things like RoboTaxi and Optimus, regardless of whether those things will be a reality any time soon.

    15. dreamwagon on

      Here’s my 2 cent dd. Last er it went downy uppy to end the week flat. This time it will be downy downy or uppy uppy

    16. Traditional_Grand837 on

      Please stfu i really don’t want Tesla to rally![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225)

    17. twostroke1 on

      This is a lot of words to explain betting on a coin flip ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)

    18. mike_krowd on

      Doesn’t matter how dog shit TSLA earnings will be. Elon will get an HJ from a robot and the stock will moon. Sorry man

    19. trillionmarketcap on

      The last time I sold a CSP before earnings and was down 200% the following morning. You’re probably going to make some money as I’m not selling a CSP before market close

    21. BullfrogGeneral5542 on

      i never touch Tesla’s option. Even if you give me Tesla earning report number 1 day before the earnings, I guarantee I will still lose money. Just zoom out. So many ER u can play this week, why has to be Tesla.

    24. zephyrs85 on

      It went up last earnings, so today it’ll go down. That sir, is my logical analysis.

    29. Softspokenclark on

      was 5% down AH, now it’s moved to down 1.5%. see what happens tomorrow

      anyways my 275c are obliterated

    30. UberQueefs on

      Profit down almost 50%? That can only mean one thing….massive green dildos in the morning to destroy your positions.

    35. crypman on

      everyone saying “great call” have not watched these AH movements fully reverse on open

    39. xMyDixieWreckedx on

      I’m so glad the algorithm decided to show me this now instead of when it was posted and I was watching TSLA with puts on my mind but it was jist hovering.

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