I was dumb enough to actually test the theory on front page
Data: Sept 1997 – May 2017 Daily Spy and Spy 500 Future data.
Assuming the following:
- Change % is measured in (Open price – Close price)/(Open Price)
- Green is defined as Change % > 0.5%
- Red is defined as Change % < -0.5%
- Crab is anything in between; -0.5% < Change % < 0.5%
Marked in bold is what the OP claimed to be the SPY performance the day after:
Green Today + Green Futures:
30 counts total. 37% Green Tomorrow, 23% Crab Tomorrow, 40% Red Tomorrow.
Green Today + Crab Futures:
234 counts total. 22% Green Tomorrow, 48% Crab Tomorrow, 30% Red Tomorrow
Green Today + Red Futures:
949 counts total. 23% Green Tomorrow. 52% Crab Tomorrow. 25% Red Tomorrow
Crab Today + Green Futures:
283 counts total. 29% Green Tomorrow. 42% Crab Tomorrow. 29% Red Tomorrow
Crab Today + Crab Futures:
1827 counts total. 20% Green Tomorrow. 60% Crab Tomorrow. 20% Red Tomorrow
Crab Today + Red Futures:
452 counts total. 25% Green Tomorrow. 56% Crab Tomorrow. 19% Red Tomorrow
Red Today + Green Futures:
901 counts total. 33% Green Tomorrow. 39% Crab Tomorrow. 28% Red Tomorrow
Red Today + Crab Futures:
248 counts total. 27% Green Tomorrow. 48% Crab Tomorrow. 25% Red Tomorrow
Red Today + Red Futures:
25 counts total. 32% Green Tomorrow. 36% Crab Tomorrow. 32% Red Tomorrow.
TLDR: u/Slick_MF_iG is full of shit
Stock Market Cheat Sheet – Peer Evaluation
byu/kiwibestfruit inwallstreetbets
Posted by kiwibestfruit
17 Comments
Op is the guy at party that spoil your jokes with monotone facts.
or flip a coin. Or get a magic 8 ball.
[Original Magic 8 Ball (magic-8ball.com)](https://magic-8ball.com/)
So what your saying is thetagang, er crabgang win most days?
Neat to see, I might try to do it for several different scenarios depending on IV, with green/red re-defined as 0.4%, and for different ETFs.
[deleted]
You’re doing God’s work
I also have a theory. The test subjects brain function is directly inversely proportional to his believe in financial theories of broke mfs who don’t use them but love writing about or sell them.
What the fuck does crab mean im new and regarded
Join WSB for 2 months + Post WSB Call = Red Tomorrow
Join WSB for 2 months + Post WSB Put = Green Tomorrow
Accuracy 100% back tested 2 months. No need to look further.
Nice, hopefully people see this post before they go all in on the other one
So today’s a crab day?
So just inverse?
So you’re saying we’ve got crabs
Do one 1% instead of 0.5%
Can you really call a 0,5% change on the spy a crab day ?
Whats the crab day definition in %?