Iron Condor $SPX analytics / search tool

u/alphabart and u/Simon_Inaki just asked about Iron Condors.

The analytics I am about to show looks at $SPX and starts with an initial peg (close to current price), a given gap off that peg, and then a spread, gap between spreads, and count.

I take an average of the put & call IVs closest to 50-delta as the "ATM Vol." [The research I found suggests this is the "best estimator" (in a statistical sense) and there are all kinds of reasons why that ought to be the case.]

I use the normal distribution to estimate probabilities. Please feel free to suggest reasonable and analytically practical alternatives. Obviously there is some consideration of positive drift I'm not accounting for given the unequal deltas on equal gaps from underlying…

ALSO: These are after-hours prices…please don't read anything into these numbers for trading purposes.

https://preview.redd.it/7ys1btg45bmd1.png?width=2228&format=png&auto=webp&s=4306aeb338bf457362e2de32ef773cb66a79727a