Spent a Year Analyzing $100K+ Options Flow Data—The Win Rate Breakdown is Eye-Opening 👀
Hey traders! After spending a year digging into options trades with premiums over $100K, I’ve uncovered some fascinating trends, especially around win rates at different profit levels. I thought I’d share what I’ve found so far, and I’d love to hear your thoughts.
What’s in the chart?
- Each point on the chart represents the win rate (%) for various potential profit, from 10% to 100%. And those little numbers? That’s how many trades hit each target. For example, at 10% profit, there were 12,286 trades with a crazy 90% win rate. As you shoot for higher profit targets, like 100%, the win rate drops to around 45%.
Here’s what stands out to me:
- Big win rate at lower profits: A 90% win rate at 10% profit is massive. But as expected, aiming for 100% profit gets a lot tougher, with fewer trades and lower success rates.
- People lock in profits early: As profit targets go up, trade volume goes down. Most likely, a lot of traders are cashing out before they try to hit bigger profits.
- Balancing risk vs reward: The data shows that targeting modest profits could lead to more consistent wins. But if you’re shooting for the moon, the success rate drops. This could be a good clue for refining strategies.
Is this useful? I’m curious—would this type of data help you in your trading? I’ve got tons of info on millions of trades and can dive deeper into things like specific tickers, max drawdown, sectors, and trade durations (DTE). If people are interested, I’m thinking about creating a premium service with regular reports, real-time insights, and dashboards that break this down even further.
Would you pay for this kind of data? If so, how would you like it—email reports, a dashboard, real-time alerts? Let me know what you’d find most useful! I’m still figuring out how to offer the best value, and your feedback would help a ton.
Potential profit for every trades
Spent a Year Analyzing $100K+ Options Flow Data—The Win Rate Breakdown is Eye-Opening 👀
byu/AmbitionLoose9912 inoptions
Posted by AmbitionLoose9912
5 Comments
Interesting for derivative traders….
Worth mentioning is, a lot of big boys dont want to ‘win’. Its a 100k option position hedging a 1mm share position, or they sold them to offset delta elsewhere…
That said, you can analyze fills near bid/ask to try and determine if it was retail. Nothing concrete though.
I’m sorry, but what source quality is this data? I thought position tracking data is proprietary? Only transactional data is public.
i’m sorry, measuring by size of premium is so off base as to be completely meaningless. half of these positions could be literally just hedging spot/cross-asset/greek exposures, in which case “winning” was never the goal
What exactly is a win rate and how is potential profit calculated? No trades were ever losers?
Hey OP, this is great. This is reinforcing an idea I had for this year that I could not master it or did not know if a strategy like so would help me or hurt me. One thing I would be interested in is how an option of put vs a call is a factor or is your study merely saying that there is difference between those variables. Also, how was an exit strategy determined. Was there even an exit strategy? Thanks!