Leaving a link here to those interested: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-muted-uncertainty-fed-rate-101133976.html
Chances of 50 bps rate cut increase to 47%
byu/yung_thomas inwallstreetbets
Posted by yung_thomas
Leaving a link here to those interested: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-muted-uncertainty-fed-rate-101133976.html
Chances of 50 bps rate cut increase to 47%
byu/yung_thomas inwallstreetbets
Posted by yung_thomas
27 Comments
No fucking way
Seems odd, you can check it yourself here. 43% this morning at 8:00 AM
[https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
CME watch tool has been all over the place the past month. No one knows. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s no cuts.
so either it does or it doesn’t 
You will see year low if the cut is 50 bps
The pros are more regarded than we are. They are professional regards.
Ruh roh  
https://preview.redd.it/g3uj7e6ylkod1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=66c62ad0722f8cab8721bb5223e217f1849d323d
I sure hope so. Would love my multiple retirement accounts to tank 20% and crab for a year so I could make $200 on my one cash account poot 
Nah it will be 25, Powell is too conservative for 50
My serious question, what happens if fed decrease 50 point or 25 point? Can anyone please explain me both the cases? Wills tock go up?
60% of the time it works every time
I think it’s important to know that Powell is very conservative and boring, he’s not going to surprise you. It will definitely be 25 basis points. Don’t get sucked into what media is predicting because they are just trying to create hype or stir things up to make you think 50 basis points is possible then we all get sucked in or brain washed thinking that way, but the data suggest 25 basis points. Power loves his data.
Could be bearish a 50 points reduction? I mean, it could indicate desperation by the FED.
As if this metric hasn’t been wrong the past year or two
Even if it was 99% if it dont happen it dont happen. Poots
I thought the increase was to 43%, 🤔 regardless I don’t think it’s likely
ain’t gonna happened.. but noises of recession will sirely increase. 🤷♂️
This is very curious indeed. Was there an economic release this morning that caused bond markets to begin shedding holdings?
We’re now 49/50% of a 50bps/25bps cut. If we get a half point reduction, we’re almost certainly facing a recessionary event given inflation remains above target.
Here we go volatility, jfc.
This lower inflation is just transitory.
Big election in November
50 points is good right – spy will go back to its ATH
So what does that say about the Fed’s confidence in our economy?
Here is the thing, 50bps rate cut might create panic in investors thinking recession is inevitable and also could potentially trigger irrecoverable oversell in USA and overseas. BUT if it’s 25bps, well it’s already kinda expected and market is already priced in to an extent, we are gonna look at controlled chaos. And they can do 25bps cut twice if needed in order to show people that government is on “people” side.
It will be 25bps for now, period.
Lol I’m betting everything on not 50bps. Just don’t know how yet…
Recession coming.