Here's a thought experiment I'd appreciate feedback on.

    I'm not a Buy and Holder, but recently I've gotten into buying LEAPS Calls and selling CCs against them. (The PMCC.) And some of my picks have seen very healthy gains in the long Call when I've gotten the direction right. (My oldest position is barely 2 months old. And these are in a taxable account, so I'm going for the LTCG benefit.)

    I recently read Intrinsic by Mike Yuen, and his premise is basically:
    "Find a good-performing Big Tech stock and buy a LEAPS Call on it. It'll probably be higher in 1 or 2 years."

    So then in my mind I generalized that to:

    Will stock "x" be higher in 2 years?

    Probably, right? Unless we go into a 2008-type decline. But this would survive a COVID-like drop. I'm not sure about 2000.

    January 2027 LEAPS came out yesterday, and that's 2.3 years away.

    Maybe you throw darts at a list of stocks or ETFs. Buy a Call 2 years out on each one. Wait.
    The ones that win should more than make up for the ones that go to zero (the stock or the LEAPS).

    Does that piece make sense? Then I got to thinking: how much money should you put in each one? One way to think of buying a Call (whether 2 months or 2 years out) is as a built-in stop loss: you can only lose as much as you paid for it.

    What's your normal stop-loss for stocks/ETFs/funds? Mine is 10%. (Note that I didn't say for options.)

    But I'm not sure you can get into a LEAPS Call that far out, even ATM, for 10% of spot. And you certainly won't get up to 80 delta (the 'accepted' norm for PMCCs). (I thought; more on that below.)

    So maybe you use 20% of spot. "I'm willing to bet 20% of this stock's current price that it'll be worth more in 2.3 years." (And enough more to cover the breakeven of the option.)

    And of course you wouldn't just blindly do this, but rather pick stocks that are doing well, or that should do well, or whatever your stock-picking metric is.

    So just going down the list of tickers I'm currently long on:

    AFL at 109.56: 20% of that would buy the 850 DTE 100C at 74 delta for 21.70. That's fairly close to 80 delta.

    ASTS: volatility is so high you can't get anywhere near the money for 20%. Same with CLOV and CVNA.

    FIS at 85.04: could buy the 82.5C at 67 delta.

    IEF at 98.96: this one's IV is so low that you can buy the 80 delta 95C for 8.18, only 8% of spot.

    KMI at 21.56: the 18C for 17%. Probably 80ish delta, but the numbers are jacked up right now AH.

    LQD at 113.72: Very low IV, so you can get the 79 delta 108C for 7.4% of spot.

    And you get the idea. All of those should be higher in 2.3 years I would think.
    (And then sell CCs against them for more juice.)

    .

    Or maybe you buy the just-ITM Call and don't use up the 20%. Or maybe you buy OTM, but that's not my style.

    Risk management? Maybe if one loses 50% you sell it. So if you paid 20% of spot, then you've stop-lossed out at 10%.

    And then is there a subset of stocks that might be good for a play like this?
    Fairly recent IPOs? That's intriguing to me. I'd want to see some upward momentum first. Maybe catch the next Amazon or Microsoft or whatever.
    Best stocks in their respective sectors?
    Mag 7 stocks?
    Small caps?
    'Value' stocks? This would be a good way to bet on those without tying up 100% of the stock price.

    What do you think? Do you see any merit to something like this?
    Best,
    Mike in Atlanta

    Buy and Hold with leverage?
    byu/theinkdon inoptions



    Posted by theinkdon

    3 Comments

    1. Hello, from also Atlanta!

      I think this is a good idea in general. Although you have to be pretty damn sure the stock is going to be higher in the coming years, if not you stand to loose all your money.

      Stop losses arent a good idea on options in my opinion. When I buy an options im already agreeing to the max loss, so why change that, right?

    2. I_am_the_Apocalypse on

      Can you condense this into actual questions? Your thought experiment is all over the place, or I’m old and cant keep track i dunno

    3. Pmcc is not a bad strategy if you want to get some leveraged long exposure. The only kinda annoying thing about leaps is that they are generally illiquid so it’s hard to get out once you get in. Well not hard, just that the market makers will be eat your lunch a little bit. There is no edge in any strategy so if you want to get leveraged long exposure, go for it.

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