2026 we gonna see big bear attack on innocent cows
Palace_of_Romance on
EnragedMoose on
A full point drop in essentially a quarter would be fucking wild
Impossible_Way7017 on
Amazing! What’s the goal, back to 2-3%. Let’s go!
chewbaccashotlast on
Jpow surprised me with the 50bp cut. I thought for sure it would be 25 and then a more accelerated plan to issue more.
To me that signals smoke. And where there’s smoke there is fire.
The challenge is you don’t know how much higher the market will go until it ploots down like an SOB.
Remember 2022? When every stock known to mankind would drop 15-20% during one of their earnings? Imagine investing in stocks merely 2 years ago – NVDA and META most notably (I’m intentionally ignoring MANY huge smaller cap winners).
Right now every stock worth its salt is not terribly far from ATHs. NVDA still has a bit to go and I don’t count TSLA because how can you price a car company that makes money from energy credits they sell to other car companies and their CEO is….well….
People will say pull out all of your money. Others will say bulls will rejoice for the remainder of this year and into next.
One thing is for certain – I’ve been playing QQQ puts almost daily never holding overnight. The few times I said I wouldn’t do it that MFer drops like 2-3% that day. So as long as I continue to play QQQ puts bulls have me to thank lmfao
throwawaitnine on
I don’t think people realize how many bonds are going to mature in 2025 and that the lower the prime rate when those bonds have to be re-sold the cheaper it will be to service that debt. Like for most of 2015 the 10 year Treasury notes were going for between 2 and 2.5%. Now the ten year yield is 3.7%. That represents a 40-80% increase in yield as things stand now on the same level of debt.
So there is all this old debt getting refinanced, so to speak, and then probably $2T in new debt, $5-10t total in debt getting a new rate next year, the bond yield and therefore the prime rate being as low as possible is crucial. Probably of greater long term importance to the country than if we enter a recession or not.
Then there are also corporate junk bonds. Even large cap companies don’t have the same resources to rack up debt like the US government. We are addicted to near zero rate and now that inflation has cooled the Fed is gonna try to get back to near zero asap.
If it were all refinanced at a 1% lower interest rate (I know it won’t be right away) that’s ~$700 Billion/year in saved interest payments. 2% lower is ~$1.4 Trillion/year.
Recession cancelled for real.
im_burning_cookies on
Their saying another .5 so we should actually expect like a 2 full point move or what?
Natural_Dare6825 on
Music for my ears
markoeire on
Another angle might be that the Fed is sucking up to the new government to get their support (keep their jobs)
Thenewoutlier on
That’s what they did in 07 and it worked out for everyone
No_Mortgage7254 on
Inflation is back on the menu, let them eat cake.
ilikebunnies1 on
SlickRick941 on
A full point drop after it’s been high and steady for so long is pretty concerning. It reflects a lack of faith in the economy and they’re doing this to entice borrowing again.
18 Comments
2026 we gonna see big bear attack on innocent cows
A full point drop in essentially a quarter would be fucking wild
Amazing! What’s the goal, back to 2-3%. Let’s go!
Jpow surprised me with the 50bp cut. I thought for sure it would be 25 and then a more accelerated plan to issue more.
To me that signals smoke. And where there’s smoke there is fire.
The challenge is you don’t know how much higher the market will go until it ploots down like an SOB.
Remember 2022? When every stock known to mankind would drop 15-20% during one of their earnings? Imagine investing in stocks merely 2 years ago – NVDA and META most notably (I’m intentionally ignoring MANY huge smaller cap winners).
Right now every stock worth its salt is not terribly far from ATHs. NVDA still has a bit to go and I don’t count TSLA because how can you price a car company that makes money from energy credits they sell to other car companies and their CEO is….well….
People will say pull out all of your money. Others will say bulls will rejoice for the remainder of this year and into next.
One thing is for certain – I’ve been playing QQQ puts almost daily never holding overnight. The few times I said I wouldn’t do it that MFer drops like 2-3% that day. So as long as I continue to play QQQ puts bulls have me to thank lmfao
I don’t think people realize how many bonds are going to mature in 2025 and that the lower the prime rate when those bonds have to be re-sold the cheaper it will be to service that debt. Like for most of 2015 the 10 year Treasury notes were going for between 2 and 2.5%. Now the ten year yield is 3.7%. That represents a 40-80% increase in yield as things stand now on the same level of debt.
So there is all this old debt getting refinanced, so to speak, and then probably $2T in new debt, $5-10t total in debt getting a new rate next year, the bond yield and therefore the prime rate being as low as possible is crucial. Probably of greater long term importance to the country than if we enter a recession or not.
Then there are also corporate junk bonds. Even large cap companies don’t have the same resources to rack up debt like the US government. We are addicted to near zero rate and now that inflation has cooled the Fed is gonna try to get back to near zero asap.
More green dildos I’m lovin it 😘
[deleted]
They are panicking
Real estate stocks it is then
~$70 Trillion in debt across government, corporations, and households: [The Fed – Chart: Debt of Nonfinancial Sectors, 1952 – 2024 (federalreserve.gov)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/nonfinancial_debt/chart/)
If it were all refinanced at a 1% lower interest rate (I know it won’t be right away) that’s ~$700 Billion/year in saved interest payments. 2% lower is ~$1.4 Trillion/year.
Recession cancelled for real.
Their saying another .5 so we should actually expect like a 2 full point move or what?
Music for my ears
Another angle might be that the Fed is sucking up to the new government to get their support (keep their jobs)
That’s what they did in 07 and it worked out for everyone
Inflation is back on the menu, let them eat cake.
A full point drop after it’s been high and steady for so long is pretty concerning. It reflects a lack of faith in the economy and they’re doing this to entice borrowing again.
But this is a casino, so calls it is