It’s not over yet, but…

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    Posted by RhinoInsight

    12 Comments

    1. Market is up at record levels? What have you been shorting to think the market and economy are down?

    2. The US labour market in September managed to create 254 thousand new jobs, including 223 thousand jobs in the private sector. And taking into account the revisions, the increase compared to August values was 326 thousand. It turns out everything is not so bad …

      The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the employment rate rose from 60% to 60.2%. Openings rose in August-September, and as a result, the job openings to unemployed ratio added a bit too (1.13). The report is, of course, much more optimistic than the markets were laying out.

      Hourly earnings are up 0.4% m/m and 4.0% y/y, while non-managerial payrolls are up a brisk and cheerful 6.6% y/y given the rather strong growth in employment. Although this is within the statistical fluctuations of the figures, the markets were tense – the dream of a quick rate cut is under threat again. The situation is somewhat similar to last autumn, when Powell sharply turned the rhetoric around and then hovered for six months….

    3. I’m 58. I know what a recession looks like, and this ain’t it. Get back to me when your 401k goes down by 40% and unemployment is 15%.

    4. lostredditorlurking on

      The recent job number disagrees with you bud.

      Just because one side of the media keeps saying the economy is shit under 💤 Joe, doesn’t means the economy is shit

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