Why Oil Could 5X To $350, ‘Crater’ World Economy | Bjarne Schieldrop
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Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, discusses the outlook for the energy sector, and a “worst-case” that could cause an oil market shock and send prices beyond $200 a barrel.
*This video was recorded on October 11, 2024
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00:00 – $350 Oil “Worst-Case” Scenario
02:02 – Strait of Hormuz’s Strategic Importance
04:07 – Alternative Pipelines and Strategic Reserves
05:18 – Iran-Israel Conflict Scenarios and Oil Impact
07:21 – Sponsor Message: Bitcoin IRA with iTrustCapital
08:03 – U.S. and China’s Role in Strait of Hormuz Crisis
09:18 – War’s Influence on Oil Prices
11:25 – Impact of Retaliatory Strikes on Oil Refineries
12:59 – Global Oil Market’s Ability to Adapt
15:17 – Geopolitical Risk Premium in Oil Prices
16:08 – Future Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics
18:01 – Emerging Markets’ Role in Oil Demand
19:17 – Long-Term Projections for Oil Prices
22:13 – OPEC’s Strategy and Influence on Prices
24:44 – Finding the Long-Term Oil Price Balance
25:26 – The Economic Impact of High Oil Prices
26:08 – Conclusion and Guest’s Research Platform
#oil #investing #economy
36 Comments
Is oil about to spike?
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Iran's oil mostly goes to China. China would then need to source from elsewhere. If Iran hit Saudi oil then we all need to go somewhere else. The US, Canada, Nigeria likely win in this scenario. If China is effected it effects all of us though and sends prices higher as they make most of the stuff in the world today. We will see a spike in inflation for sure. Gold will shoot up to $3000 maybe even higher. I think this is not a likely scenario though. Sell the news.
Iran is not the problem
Surprised that such a good show has so many "deep thinkers" in the comment section…
ClickBait
20$ Oil could be possible too 😂🙂😂
We would fast track more oil drilling in the US before $350 ever happened.
Trump will Drill Baby Drill ! What is that guy dreaming ??🤥🧐
Really 350? Why not choose $500 or just say $1000 a barrel. The world would increase production when it gets over $80. Doom and gloom David. Hyperbole crazy…
' ! ❤ ! " Responsibility Matters for ALL Lives " ! USA ! *
Free Persia
Your guest has poor audio.
The price will go up because of inflation not becase of demand.
Green will keep slowly eating up market share.
No 😂
Trump will stop it
I’ll be riding my motorcycle a lot it looks like ….
Iran is not going to stab itself in the ass. Their economy would be in the crapper. Also China has dependence on oil from Iran. Not a smart move.
Oil and its price is controlled directly by the same global entity that directly controls all aspects of global financial system
$60 oil
$90 DXY
6500 S&P. You heard it here first.
What a lot of nonsense
And there is a chance that hormuz still and will close so high price of oil keep maintain coz scarcity.. And the one which country have oil company that need to go hormuz will have maybe 2 choice.. 1 still operating but with ceiling that oil can pass, 2. Will operating to sell it to the third country.. Like russia did to sell oil to india and then india sell it to west bastard..
Petroline is there for that…
The continuously changing economic conditions in our society have made it necessary for people to find additional sources of income, thus I am looking at the stock market to fuel my retirement goal of $3m, my only concern is the recent market crash.
they may only stop empty ships coming in to take oil to europe
The main problem there with shekel, approaching to its low and lawmakers try to go against cash hording, gold purchase
I don't think the powers that be want $350/bbl… maybe $85
People try to predict the economy not realizing it is not a capitalistic market, its a command economy, central planning! my concern is, instead of having much dollar in bank that could lose value to inflation, do I save in gold to reserve and grow wealth for now, or just hang on?
The US economy is a powerhouse with a diverse range of sectors. The stock market and the dollar have traditionally been safe havens due to their long-term growth and stability. However, potential downturns are part of the economic cycle, and laws are in place to manage defaults and asset seizures. Inflation can be a concern, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months… I'm especially grateful to Milton Harper , whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
David, OPEC didn't flood to negative. Back in the days before negative, american oil had problems dealing with low prices, then CNN show padlock in the middle of nowhere and oil go negative. Unlimited shorts received unlimited losses. Few weeks later chinese start revolting near their banks, that because they used to receive a steady coupon from "beautifuloil" and now banks bill them with 4 to 5 figures. I still have kitco charts pix showing shorts losses over 21000%
Sure… Wake me when it 🎯 over $100 first.
I have seen oil price crash in 2016 but oil spike is not possible as Iran oil is not the oil for the whole world.
Thanks for the forecast! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How can I transfer them to Binance?
It won't happen , will happen on my dream
Everything seems strange right now. society are finding it necessary to acquire new sources of income due to Inflation / shifting economic conditions. For this reason, I am considering investing in the stock market to help me reach my $1 million retirement goal; my main concern is the recent market meltdown.
pointless speculation.
3 guys in a donut shop can conclude the same outcomes, with price assumptions.
None of the experts talk about the oil deficit in the market. Currently it is 785 thousand barrels a day (kb/d).
Or the fact an increasing supply of what is traded on the market is condensate and not crude oil.
The Permian basin is the only shale basin growing production in the U.S. and it is expected to begin to decline in Q1 2025. Guyana and Brazil could ramp production but not at current prices.
I predict when the oil deficit is 3mb/d the oil price will spike over $200 a barrel.